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Amid a global economic environment marked by trade uncertainty, rising tariffs, and fears of a recession, Walmart has sent a clear message of reassurance to its customers: It will maintain low prices, reaffirm its growth goals, and rely on new sources of revenue to strengthen its stability.
Confidence in the face of uncertainty
During a two-day meeting with investors in Dallas, Walmart reaffirmed its forecasts for the fiscal year ending January 2026: it expects net sales to grow between 3% and 4%, and adjusted operating income to increase between 3.5% and 5.5%, as reported by Reuters.
Walmart's shares rose between 3% and 5% in early trading following the announcement, which analysts interpreted as a sign of confidence.
"The outlook was better than expected given the current environment... The fact that they maintained their forecasts is seen as positive," said Michael Baker, an analyst at DA Davidson, in statements reported by the aforementioned news agency.
Commitment to low prices: Peace of mind for the consumer
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was emphatic in reiterating the commitment to consumers: “We have learned to navigate turbulent times... And while we don’t know everything that’s going to happen, we do know what our priorities and our purpose are, and we will focus on keeping prices as low as possible.”
This message was reinforced by the CFO, John David Rainey, who indicated that the company wants to "maintain the flexibility to invest in price reductions as the tariffs take effect," according to CNN.
"We see opportunities to accelerate share gains while maintaining the flexibility to invest in pricing as tariffs are applied to incoming products," he added.
Trump's Tariff Threat
The context that motivates these decisions is Donald Trump's new trade offensive, who has imposed a 10% tariff on all countries and even higher taxes on dozens of nations, including a 104% tariff on Chinese products.
China represents approximately 60% of Walmart's imports.
In light of this situation, Walmart decided not to change its strategy.
According to the company, "there was nothing in the current environment that would change its strategy."
However, he acknowledged that the range of outcomes for the first quarter has widened due to volatility and the need to adjust prices.
"Operating revenues have become more difficult to predict," Rainey stated, pointing out weakness in general merchandise sales and week-to-week fluctuations.
Competitive advantage and operational scale
Several analysts agree that Walmart is better prepared than other retailers to navigate this tariff storm.
"Walmart is leveraging its scale advantage, technological capabilities, and supply chain expertise to lead during a time of increased uncertainty," explained Greg Melich, an analyst at Evercore ISI, in statements reported by CNN.
Melich added that, although Walmart "is not immune to pressure, it will manage volatility better than most."
Similarly, the Barclays analyst, Seth Sigman, pointed out that Walmart has more tools than others to negotiate with suppliers, absorb costs, and attract consumers looking for low prices.
Walmart+: Loyalty, Data, and Profitability
While navigating global uncertainty, Walmart has found a growth pillar in Walmart+, its membership program, which has become a key source of revenue and customer loyalty.
According to data from the company shared with CNBC, members of the program accounted for nearly 50% of digital spending in the U.S. during the last fiscal year.
“Walmart+ is a frequency driver”, stated Seth Dallaire, Chief Growth Officer, adding that an increase in spending per subscriber and strong growth in enrollments have been observed, thanks to tools like Walmart+ Assist, which offers discounted memberships to those receiving government assistance.
In addition to strengthening customer loyalty, Walmart+ allows the company to obtain valuable data to guide product decisions and attract advertisers, a high-margin and expanding business.
Although it has not disclosed official figures, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimates that Walmart+ had 25 million members at the end of January 2025, more than double the number in 2022, though still far below Amazon Prime's 190 million.
Walmart also announced Walmart+ Week, which will begin on April 28 with exclusive promotions for members, such as discounts on gas and free sandwiches from Burger King.
The rise of e-commerce
The impact of Walmart+ is also reflected in its digital performance: The company has recorded 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in online sales in the U.S., with a 20% increase in the most recent quarter.
This trend reinforces the company's omnichannel strategy and its ability to compete against Amazon in the digital landscape.
With a combination of scale, efficiency, low prices, and diversified income, Walmart emerges as one of the best-positioned companies to navigate the new global business landscape, as several analysts agree.
Frequently asked questions about the impact of Trump's tariffs and Walmart's response
How will Trump's new tariffs affect Walmart and its consumers?
Walmart has promised to keep prices as low as possible despite the new tariffs imposed by Trump, which particularly affect Chinese imports. The company plans to manage the additional costs through strategic investments and its Walmart+ membership program to continue attracting consumers looking for low prices.
What measures is Walmart taking to address the trade war?
Walmart is leveraging its scale advantage and technological capabilities to manage market volatility. Additionally, it relies on its Walmart+ membership program to enhance customer loyalty and gather valuable data that guides its product decisions and pricing strategies.
What are the economic forecasts for the United States following the imposition of tariffs?
The forecasts indicate a possible increase in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth in the United States due to Trump's new tariffs. The Federal Reserve has warned about the inflationary impact, while JPMorgan predicts an economic recession in the second half of 2025.
How has the market reacted to Trump's tariff policies?
The market has experienced sharp declines and volatility following the imposition of tariffs. Wall Street has suffered significant drops in its main indices, reflecting the uncertainty and concern of investors regarding Trump's trade policies and their impact on the global economy.
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