While the Cuban regime announces ambitious plans to transform the José Martí International Airport in Havana into the most competitive connection hub in the Caribbean, flights to the island from countries like Colombia barely exceed 70% occupancy, a level that is economically unviable.
According to a report by REPORTUR, a specialist in commercial aviation, airlines such as Avianca, Copa, and Wingo are keeping their operations active during the Holy Week season, although with a depressed demand that does not meet the minimum costs necessary to operate profitably.
"They are flying, likely with less than 70% occupancy, which is not profitable," stated the expert, who added that for a flight to be sustainable, it must exceed 80% occupancy and achieve an average fare of at least 300 dollars.
Modernization on the ground, but without passengers
At the recent International Transport and Logistics Fair, the government once again projected an image of modernization and growth in the tourism sector focused on flights to Cuba.
Joel Beltrán Archer Santos, president of the Cuban Aviation Corporation (CACSA), outlined the plans for the renovation of runways, platforms, and terminals, with an emphasis on the expansion of Terminal 3 and the development of a fixed-base operator at Terminal 5.
A new terminal with a capacity for 300 passengers and automated baggage processing systems was even inaugurated in February.
However, these efforts stand in stark contrast to an increasingly concerning reality in the Cuban aviation sector: International airlines are canceling their routes to the island due to lack of demand and the deterioration of the country's infrastructure, which impacts tourism.
Europe is distancing itself: Cancellations from Switzerland and Germany
The Swiss airline Edelweiss Air canceled its Zurich-Havana route in March, citing operational difficulties at Havana airport and low traveler interest.
This decision is joined by that of the German airline Cóndor, which will cease all its operations to Cuba in May 2025, thus eliminating the only direct route between Germany and the island.
Cóndor cited declining passenger demand and worsening local conditions as determining factors for its withdrawal, including power outages, shortages, and logistical problems that directly affect the traveler's experience.
Tourism in Decline: The Numbers Aren't Taking Off
The decline in air connectivity is part of a broader phenomenon, which is the downturn of international tourism in Cuba as travelers choose other destinations in the Caribbean, such as Punta Cana.
According to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), in January 2024, only 196,004 international visitors arrived on the island, the lowest figure recorded during the high season since 2007, not including the pandemic years.
This decline is even more pronounced when compared to the 249,255 tourists in January 2023 or the 259,898 in January 2022. In total, Cuba closed 2024 with about 2.2 million visitors, far below the 4.7 million it received in 2019.
A lost decade for Cuban tourism
For experts like economist José Luis Perelló, the recovery of the sector is not expected in the short term. Cuba will not reach pre-pandemic tourism levels until 2030, which he describes as a "lost decade" for one of the traditional drivers of the island's economy.
The official optimism about turning Havana into a regional hub contrasts with the lack of basic conditions that drive away investors and tourists.
Without energy security, without functional modern infrastructure, and without clear incentives for international airlines, the mega project announced by CACSA could turn out to be another empty promise, as airplane seats continue to arrive empty.
Frequently asked questions about the flight and tourism crisis in Cuba
Why do flights to Cuba have low occupancy?
Flights to Cuba have low occupancy due to depressed demand that does not meet the minimum costs for profitable operation. Factors such as the economic crisis, infrastructure issues, and competition with other Caribbean destinations contribute to this situation.
What are the Cuban government's plans for José Martí International Airport in Havana?
The Cuban government plans to transform the José Martí International Airport in Havana into the most competitive air hub in the Caribbean, with the expansion and remodeling of runways, ramps, and terminals, including Terminal 3, and the development of a fixed-base operator at Terminal 5.
How is the low flight occupancy affecting the airlines operating in Cuba?
The low flight occupancy is impacting airlines operating in Cuba, such as Avianca, Copa, and Wingo, which are unable to cover the minimum costs to operate profitably. This has led some airlines to consider reducing or canceling their routes to the island.
Why have airlines like Edelweiss Air and Cóndor canceled their flights to Cuba?
Edelweiss Air and Condor have canceled their flights to Cuba due to a decline in passenger demand and issues with local infrastructure, such as blackouts and shortages, which have negatively impacted the travel experience and the operations of the airlines.
What is the current outlook for tourism in Cuba?
Tourism in Cuba is in decline, with international visitor numbers well below pre-pandemic levels. The island is facing a "lost decade" in the tourism sector due to economic issues, infrastructure challenges, and competition from other Caribbean destinations.
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