U.S. retailers warn that consumers may face empty shelves and supply chain disruptions similar to those during the COVID era if President Donald Trump's current tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, according to a report by NBC.
After the imposition of a 145% tariff on nearly all imports from China this month, many companies have begun to cancel their shipments and stop new orders.
According to data from Port Optimizer, the number of cargo ships arriving at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to decrease by 33% year-on-year by May 10.
Normally, retailers would increase their orders for the back-to-school season and holiday shopping. However, the decline in shipments raises questions about product availability.
As Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, pointed out, "they are making their holiday purchasing decisions now," and he added, "It’s a challenge for people to know how to order and set prices correctly with all the uncertainty surrounding tariffs."
Economic consequences for businesses and consumers
Under the new tariff regime, a company must pay at least $145 in tariffs to import an item valued at $100, excluding electronic and pharmaceutical products which face lower rates.
This could force many companies to sell at a loss or raise prices to levels unacceptable for consumers.
Chinese companies reported to NBC that American firms, such as Target, have suspended orders.
A seller of false nails reported that her products remain in China and does not expect to send anything during the first half of the year.
The National Retail Federation projects that imports could drop by as much as 20% in the second half of the year if tariffs remain in place.
Among the products that could disappear from stores are footwear, clothing, toys, and low-cost electronic devices, whose production largely depends on China.
Additionally, perishable products such as apple juice and fish face storage issues due to their limited shelf life.
Expert Warnings
"Just like during the pandemic, when we experienced a shortage of toilet paper, we are going to start seeing this in more and more products," warned Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council.
Moreover, he warned: “In a couple of weeks, we will run out of stock, and if the government waits to solve the problem until we have shortages and hoarding, it will be too late.”
According to a source familiar with corporate lobbying, the prospect of empty shelves has caused more alarm in the White House than previous warnings about price increases.
Particularly, there is concern about shortages during key festive dates such as July 4th and Christmas.
Government Response and Future Scenario
After meeting with major retailers, Trump stated that he is considering reducing tariffs, although he has not yet taken formal action.
Later, it was indicated that meetings were held with Chinese officials, although they denied the existence of official trade conversations.
Although some retailers managed to expedite shipments before the tariff increase, many small businesses were unable to do the same due to financial constraints.
Jessica Berger, founder of Bundle x Joy, is facing a customs bill of $180,000.
"Fortunately, I have the resources now, but six months ago I wouldn't have had them. It could have taken me to bankruptcy," he explained in statements to the aforementioned media outlet.
Berger noted that since almost all dog toys are made in China, she does not see viable alternatives for production and will be forced to raise prices.
"I believe we are going to see a very limited offering of discretionary items, and consumers may simply not buy as much because products won't be available, and if they are, they will be much more expensive," he said.
Possible logistical collapses
Importers unable to bear the tariffs could leave thousands of unclaimed containers in the ports, as Stein warned: "We could have thousands of containers stuck, blocking the port. It’s going to be a disaster."
Even if tariffs were reduced now, disruptions in the supply chain would take weeks or months to resolve.
Dean Croke, analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics, explained: “There is an eight-week period during which volumes will plummet before they can even begin to recover, and that's if the situation returns to normal.”
This phenomenon would also affect the land transportation sector, with trucks moving to other destinations and transport rates falling, which could lead to drivers leaving the industry. Croke concluded: "It could be well into the second half of this year before truck volumes recover, even if everything returned to normal now."
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