The Meteorological Institute of Cuba announced this Wednesday its official forecast for the North Atlantic hurricane season 2025, warning of an active period in terms of tropical phenomenon formation, with a moderate risk of direct impact on the country.
According to the post on the social media platform Facebook, the expected oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a favorable environment for the formation of tropical cyclones, including still elevated sea temperatures and the cessation of the La Niña phenomenon, which will lead to neutral conditions in the Pacific.
The report details that 15 tropical cyclones are expected throughout the North Atlantic basin, 8 of which could reach hurricane status. By region, it indicates that 10 would form in the open Atlantic, 3 in the Caribbean Sea, and 2 in the Gulf of Mexico.
Risk for the Caribbean and Cuba
The report indicates that there is a 75% probability that at least one hurricane will form and strengthen in the Caribbean.
Additionally, there is a 50% probability that an Atlantic hurricane will make its way into the Caribbean Sea, and a similar percentage chance of being impacted by at least one hurricane, which is higher than the national historical average (35%). As a result, the risk of a tropical storm affecting the island is even greater: 70%.
Key factors: sea temperature and climate transition
Although the temperatures of the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic remain high, the values are slightly lower than the record reached in the 2024 season. Current models suggest a decrease in thermal anomalies in the second half of the year.
Global climate change and the behavior of phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions are elements that will continue to be closely monitored.
Next update
The Meteorology Institute has announced that an update on the forecast for the 2025 hurricane season will be issued on August 5, when more recent data and updated models are available.
This situation emphasizes the need for preparedness and vigilance in a context where the impact of extreme weather events can further exacerbate the already complex social, economic, and infrastructure situation the country is experiencing.
The 2025 hurricane forecast anticipates more storms and an elevated risk for the Caribbean and the U.S.
In April, Colorado State University (CSU) issued an initial forecast detailing that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual.
According to the report, 17 named storms are expected, of which nine could reach hurricane strength and four could reach major category (three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025 Hurricane Season in Cuba
What forecast has Cuba provided for the 2025 hurricane season?
The Meteorology Institute of Cuba has forecasted an active hurricane season for 2025, with the formation of 15 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, of which 8 could develop into hurricanes. The likelihood of Cuba being impacted by at least one hurricane is 50%, which is significantly higher than the national historical average.
What factors will influence the 2025 hurricane season?
The expected oceanic and atmospheric conditions, such as high sea temperatures and the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions in the Pacific, are key factors for the formation of tropical cyclones in 2025. These elements increase the available energy for tropical systems, raising the risk of extreme events in the Caribbean and other regions.
What is the risk of hurricane impact on Cuba in 2025?
The report from the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba indicates that there is a 70% chance that a tropical storm will affect the country, and a 50% chance of being impacted by at least one hurricane. These percentages reflect a greater risk than the historical average, underscoring the importance of preparation and vigilance.
How is Cuba preparing for the 2025 hurricane season?
The current landscape reinforces the need for preparedness and vigilance in Cuba, given the favorable conditions for extreme weather phenomena. Authorities are expected to implement preparedness measures and continue monitoring weather systems to mitigate potential effects on communities.
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