In May 2024, the euro reached one of the highest peaks ever recorded in the Cuban informal market, exceeding 400 Cuban pesos per unit.
This historical brand reflected the widespread distrust in the national currency and a growing preference for foreign currencies as a safe haven amid a persistent economic crisis.
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 07:00
- Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 370 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 390 CUP
- Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 260 CUP
Today, exactly one year later, the European currency is valued at 390 CUP, according to data from elTOQUE, which suggests that we might be close to reliving that scenario.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The chart showing the evolution of the euro over the last 12 months clearly illustrates this trend: after reaching a peak at the beginning of May 2024 (402 CUP), the euro experienced a sharp decline, with values dropping to 295 CUP one month later.
Between May and August 2024, the exchange rate of the European currency experienced sharp fluctuations. However, in September, it saw relative stability around 330-340 pesos.
After progressively rising to 345 CUP, which it maintained in November 2024, the euro fell again in December 2024 to 300 CUP, matching its exchange rate with the dollar at that time. However, since January 2025, it has maintained a nearly constant upward trend, placing it today back at 390 CUP, with a pronounced inclination towards increase.
On an international level, the euro has also shown strength: it is currently trading at 1.136 US dollars, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. This appreciation, driven by a weakening dollar and a more stable monetary policy in Europe, strengthens the position of the communal currency in markets like Cuba, where confidence in the national currency is minimal.
Will the euro surpass 400 pesos again?
Everything suggests so. The trend of sustained growth in the informal market, combined with the global context and the decline in the purchasing power of the Cuban peso, indicates that the euro could exceed 400 CUP in the coming weeks.
This hypothesis is supported by both graphic indicators and the cyclical behavior of currencies in the informal market on the island, particularly during periods of higher demand such as the summer months or year-end.
This scenario would have significant implications for the daily lives of Cubans. A more expensive euro raises prices in informal markets and in MLC stores, where many basic products are purchased with remittances.
People receiving assistance from abroad in euros could benefit, but the majority of citizens, who rely on salaries in CUP, would see their purchasing power further diminished.
Furthermore, a rising euro tends to increase the price of other currencies in the informal market, triggering a new round of inflation. At the same time, access to imported goods, medications, food, and services offered by the private sector becomes more expensive.
In summary, an exchange rate of the euro above 400 CUP can be seen as both a symptom of economic imbalance and a contributing factor to social unrest.
In this context, Cubans continue to rely on an unofficial currency market that sets the pace for their domestic economy. And while the euro keeps strengthening, the question is no longer whether it will surpass 400 pesos again, but rather when it will do so.
Filed under:
