The informal currency market in Cuba started this Saturday with a slight upward movement in the price of the dollar, which is regaining ground against the Cuban peso.
Meanwhile, the euro and the Free Convertible Currency (MLC) remain unchanged, consolidating a day of relative stability for these two currencies.
According to the daily report from the independent media elTOQUE, the median exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in the black market stands at 380 Cuban pesos (CUP), an increase of two pesos compared to Friday, when it was trading at 378 CUP.
The euro maintains its exchange rate at 410 CUP, the same value recorded in previous days, while the MLC remains fixed at 260 CUP, one of its lowest levels so far in 2025.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Saturday, June 21, 2025 - 07:00
- Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 380 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 410 CUP
- Exchange rate of (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 260 CUP
The variation of the dollar could be related to an increase in demand, a trend anticipated by the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), which warned of a possible "excess demand" in the second half of June. This behavior contrasts with the predominance of supply observed in the previous month.
In its latest forecast, the OMFi projected a central value of **385 CUP for the dollar** by June 30, with margins that could reach up to 408 CUP. For the euro, an average value of 406 CUP is expected, and for the MLC, 274 CUP. These figures indicate the possibility of new increases in the coming days.
Equivalencies to the current exchange rate:
Dollar (USD):
- 10 USD = 3,800 CUP
- 50 USD = 19,000 CUP
- 100 USD = 38,000 CUP
Euro (EUR):
- 10 EUR = 4,100 CUP
- 50 EUR = 20,500 CUP
- 100 EUR = 41,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 205,000 CUP
The long-awaited currency reform announced by the Cuban government remains stalled. Although authorities claim that “alternatives” are being evaluated, the Minister of Economy, Joaquín Alonso, acknowledged that any change would entail significant risks for an economy already struggling with a shortage of foreign currency and basic goods.
What happened to the promised restructuring of the foreign exchange market in Cuba?
Announced as imminent for 2025, the reform of the exchange market with a floating exchange rate has been put on hold. During the recent Congress of the National Association of Economists and Accountants of Cuba (ANEC), the Minister of Economy, Alonso, acknowledged that "alternatives are being analyzed," but that "the risk is high."
Despite Prime Minister Manuel Marrero's assurance in December 2024 that monetary restructuring was imminent, the latest statements from the minister reflect a much more cautious stance. "Any measure must ensure that the exchange rate does not skyrocket," Alonso warned, acknowledging that without an improvement in the supply of goods, the system would remain under pressure.
Currently, the Cuban economy operates with three exchange rates: an official rate of 24 CUP for state enterprises, another of 120 CUP for banking operations with the population, and the informal rate, exceeding 370 CUP, where real transactions occur.
This fragmentation has led to what the government itself refers to as a currency "distortion." The dollar has become a key reference point and has encouraged a partial dollarization that deepens inequality, particularly among those who do not have access to remittances or income in foreign currency.
Economists like Pavel Vidal and Mauricio de Miranda have questioned the viability of a “managed” floating rate by the State in a centralized economy. De Miranda has even proposed the inclusion of the private sector in the currency exchange system under state regulation, but so far, the official response has been to maintain absolute control.
Meanwhile, the promise of a fairer and more flexible exchange system remains unfulfilled. In practice, most Cubans continue to be trapped in a monetary scheme that penalizes the use of the Cuban peso and rewards access to foreign currency.
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