The dollar continues its unchecked rise in the informal market, although it's still far behind the euro, which remains in the lead.
At dawn this Thursday, the U.S. dollar suddenly jumps five points, reaching 465 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), on the other hand, has decreased by five pesos and is being sold on average for 200 CUP, according to the independent media outlet elTOQUE in its report for October 16.
The euro, for its part, remains stable and holds at 520 CUP that it has maintained for several days.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 10/16/2025 - 6:36 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 465 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 520 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 200 CUP.
The dollar skyrockets in the Cuban informal market: structural causes and speculative dynamics
According to the October report from the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), the depreciation of the peso is due to a multidimensional crisis that drives Cubans—from households to small and medium-sized enterprises—to seek refuge in strong currencies to protect themselves from inflation, conduct business, or simply survive.
The lack of trust in the national currency and the perception that the crisis has no short-term solution reinforce this defensive behavior.
One of the driving forces behind the rise of the dollar is the increasing dollarization of domestic consumption. More and more Cubans need dollars or MLC to access essential goods and services, while the peso loses practical functionality.
However, MLC itself is going through a crisis. This collapse is related to: a shortage of products in MLC stores; loss of backing in real currencies; and a reduction in the spaces where it can be used.
This deterioration has led many Cubans to refer to MLC cards as "ghost dollars," while rumors about their elimination continue to spread.
The decline in national production, particularly due to the energy crisis and the lack of supplies, has forced small and medium-sized enterprises (mipymes) to seek inputs from abroad, increasing their need for foreign currency. This creates fierce competition in the informal market among businesses, consumers, and traders.
At the same time, there is a growing flight of capital and the use of cryptocurrencies or foreign accounts to protect income. This dynamic is fueled by widespread distrust in the government's ability to implement stabilizing policies.
The excess of pesos in circulation without backing from production, combined with the failure of the banking process, has encouraged the immediate conversion of pesos into foreign currencies. This speculative process has accelerated due to the perception that the value of the peso is decreasing every day.
On the other hand, the sustained decline in tourism has severely impacted the influx of fresh foreign currency into the country. The reduced flow of dollars through tourism exacerbates the imbalance between the supply and demand for foreign currency.
The cited source projects that the dollar could reach 473 CUP and even surpass 500 CUP if the current extreme environment persists.
The euro could reach 551 CUP and the MLC around 215 CUP.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this October 16:
1 USD = 465 CUP.
5 USD = 2,325 CUP.
10 USD = 4,650 CUP.
20 USD = 9,300 CUP.
50 USD = 23,250 CUP.
100 USD = 46,500 CUP
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 520 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 10,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 26,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 52,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 104,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 260,000 CUP.
Since late 2024, the Cuban government announced its intention to introduce a floating exchange system in 2025 in an attempt to narrow the gap between the official and informal value of currencies. However, with two and a half months left in the year, the regime has yet to comment on the matter.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Economic Crisis in Cuba and the Rise of the Dollar
Why is the dollar price increasing in Cuba?
The dollar is rising in Cuba due to the multidimensional crisis the country is facing, which has led to a depreciation of the Cuban peso. Factors such as product shortages, inflation, and a lack of confidence in the national currency have driven Cubans to seek refuge in foreign currencies like the dollar. Additionally, the dollar has been boosted by the growing dollarization of domestic consumption and the need for foreign currency to import essential goods.
What is the current exchange rate of the dollar in the informal Cuban market?
As of October 16, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar in the Cuban informal market is 465 CUP. This figure represents a significant increase compared to previous weeks and reflects the ongoing devaluation of the Cuban peso against foreign currencies.
How does the rise of the dollar affect Cubans?
The rise of the dollar affects Cubans by increasing the cost of basic goods and services, many of which rely on imports paid for in foreign currency. This reduces the purchasing power of those who earn in Cuban pesos and deepens economic inequalities between those who have access to foreign currency and those who do not. Furthermore, reliance on remittances and emigration has become a survival strategy for many Cubans.
What measures has the Cuban government taken to address the currency crisis?
The Cuban government has announced its intention to introduce a floating exchange system to try to narrow the gap between the official and informal values of currencies. However, to date, no specific actions have been taken to implement this system, which continues to generate uncertainty and distrust among the population.
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