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The depreciation of the Cuban peso seems to be unstoppable. With less than three months left until the end of the year, trends in the informal currency market indicate a closing with new records for the dollar and the euro, two currencies that have become barometers of the economic decline on the island.
The US dollar (USD) is trading this Sunday at 458 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro (EUR) reaches 520 CUP, according to data from elTOQUE.
In July, the values were 385 and 426, respectively. The increase in just 90 days exceeds 20% in both cases and confirms the accelerated pace of devaluation of the peso.
If this monthly trend continues — an increase of about 10 to 15 pesos per month for the dollar and between 12 and 18 for the euro — analysts estimate that the market could close 2025 with the dollar nearing 500 CUP and the euro approaching 580 CUP, just as most Cubans predicted in the CiberCuba survey conducted in mid-September.
If these projections hold true, the Cuban peso would experience a loss of value close to 30% in just six months, the largest decline in nearly three years.
The projection is not merely arithmetic; it reflects a structural context where the scarcity of official currency, rampant inflation, and lack of confidence in the government's economic management fuel the demand for the parallel market.
The absence of an efficient formal currency exchange system has established the informal market as the only real reference for calculating prices, savings, and remittances.
Meanwhile, the regime continues to resort to vague promises of "reorganization" and "currency stabilization" without providing details or tangible results.
After the midpoint of 2025, the promise from Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz to implement a new "management, control, and currency allocation mechanism", as part of the so-called "Government Program to correct distortions and reboost the economy," remains unfulfilled.
Independent economists warn that any attempt to reverse the trend would require deep measures: restricting monetary issuance, attracting real foreign investment, and reopening channels for the circulation of foreign currency.
But in practice, the immediate outlook seems clear: the Cuban peso will continue to weaken, driven by distrust and a productivity paralysis.
If the current dynamics continue, 2025 will close with the dollar and the euro at unprecedented levels, and millions of Cubans will be facing a purchasing power increasingly eroded by inflation that is already felt in every market, every store, and every currency that changes hands.
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