Related videos:
A wave of recent polls shows that support from Latino voters —a key bloc that helped Donald Trump win in 2024— is significantly declining, raising concerns ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 and the possibility of a similar scenario unfolding in the swing state of Florida.
According to a survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted in October 2025, only 25% of Hispanic adults have a "somewhat" or "very" favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 44% earlier in the year.
The approval of his administration among Hispanics has also plummeted: from 41% in March to 27% in October. Another survey from UnidosUS, an organization representing the Latino community, reveals that approximately 70% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and blame Trump.
According to an analysis by columnist Andrés Oppenheimer for the Miami Herald, the Latino setback is noticeable in various states: for instance, in New Jersey, the Republican candidate supported by Trump went from 46% of the Latino vote in 2024 to 31% in the state elections on November 4.
The reason for this exodus primarily revolves around economic issues: inflation, housing costs, healthcare, and employment. Latinos point out that Trump’s campaign promises have not been fulfilled and they are experiencing increased financial stress.
This is compounded by the immigration policies of his administration, which generate rejection among many Latinos, including citizens, due to fear of ICE raids.
Although the decline in Florida is not as sharp —the survey by UnidosUS recorded a 39% approval rating among Latinos in the state compared to the 31% national figure cited by Oppenheimer— the fact that Trump started from a higher base in that state makes it a focal point of risk.
What implications does this have? If the trend continues, the Democrats could gain a substantial advantage in 2026 and pave the way for 2028.
The message for Republicans is clear: it's not enough to win the Latino vote in one election; it needs to be maintained. If the economy recovers, they could reverse some of the damage, but the window of opportunity is narrowing.
In summary, the Latino community, once a cornerstone of Trump's electoral success, is showing signs of withdrawal. And although Florida still holds firm, cracks are beginning to appear that could widen in the next electoral cycle.
From Conquest to Latin Disenchantment with Trump
Since his first term, Donald Trump has maintained a complicated and ambivalent relationship with the Latin community in the United States.
His opening speech, characterized by promises of a tough stance on immigration and the construction of the border wall, instilled fear and rejection among millions of Hispanics.
Nonetheless, the strength of the economy and the reduction in unemployment during his early years in office provided him with an unexpected sliver of support from a sector that has traditionally favored the Democratic Party.
In the following years, this paradox deepened. While the White House boasted about the economic benefits of its policies—higher wages, more jobs, and tax credits—testimonies of raids, deportations, and discrimination multiplied in Latino neighborhoods.
The media and polls at that time captured the sentiments of a divided community: grateful for the economic prosperity, but hurt by a rhetoric that labeled them a threat.
Nevertheless, by 2019, Trump saw a surge in the polls, gaining the approval of half of Latinos, thanks to job growth and the promise of opportunities.
In his 2020 campaign, he intensified that approach, promising millions of new jobs and stating that Hispanic Americans would be "the protagonists of an incredible role" in his second term. But it wasn't enough, and the U.S. awarded the presidency to Joe Biden.
However, the message addressed to the Latin American communities worked in 2024, when the Latino vote —especially in Florida— was crucial for his reelection.
But the illusion lasted only a short time. In his second term, trust began to erode. The stricter immigration policies, arbitrary arrests based on racial profiling, and the feeling of economic neglect during the inflation crisis of 2025 marked a turning point.
Even former Latino allies, such as leaders of the 'Latinas for Trump' movement, began to publicly express their disillusionment and denounce the president's authoritarian turn.
Today, the polls reveal what is already perceived on the streets: a rift between Trump and a significant portion of the community that once viewed him as a pragmatic businessman capable of improving their living conditions.
The promise of progress turned into frustration. Latinos, who once gave him the benefit of the doubt, seem to have concluded that Trump's American dream was not meant for them.
Filed under: