The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has once again put the price of gasoline at the forefront of his agenda, with a promise aimed at resonating with citizens worried about inflation: to bring the cost of a gallon of fuel down to two dollars, or even less.
During a press conference held on Tuesday at the White House, Trump appeared confident.
"Now we are at about two dollars and fifty cents a gallon. I think we'll be at $2 a gallon. We might even reduce that at some point," he stated.
An ambitious promise
Trump, who has made fuel prices a recurring topic in his speeches, emphasized that this goal could be achieved more easily "if we weren’t building the national reserve strategy that Biden emptied before the elections, so they could try to get elected."
In his direct criticism of the former president, he accused his predecessor of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) for electoral purposes instead of real emergencies.
"They emptied these strategic national reserves that are actually intended for something else. They are not meant to keep people happy with their gasoline prices. They are intended for war, they were meant for problems. Big problems," he said.
According to Trump, the policy of releasing reserves during the global energy crisis did not have the desired effect.
"It didn't work very well for him. And they practically brought him down to the lowest level, I think, in history. It didn't have much impact because the prices were very high," he emphasized.
In contrast, he defended his current management by stating, "Our prices for energy now... gasoline is very low. Electricity is going down. And when that falls, everything falls," referring to the domino effect on production costs and consumer goods.
Market context: A real decline, but still far from the target
The current data from the energy market partially reinforces Trump's narrative.
According to figures from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price of a gallon of gasoline fell to $2.99 this week, marking its lowest point since May 2021. This decrease is attributed to a combination of factors, including the decline in crude oil prices and an increase in domestic production.
Bloomberg reported that "the cost of pumping a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. is the cheapest it has been in more than four years," although it is still "well above President Donald Trump's promise to bring the price down to below $2." In fact, despite the national average having dropped about 13 cents per gallon in recent months, that price remains roughly a dollar above the target the president has set.
The demand for fuel has also been lower than in previous years, which has helped keep costs down.
However, the regional disparity is considerable: while drivers in Texas paid $2.57 per gallon this week, in California the price remained at $4.56.
National production and the geopolitics of oil
The current decline in gasoline prices is closely tied to movements in the global oil market. A barrel of U.S. crude is around 59 dollars today, a significant drop from 81 dollars in 2022.
This trend has been driven by both OPEC decisions and record production levels in the U.S.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase estimate that if Saudi Arabia and its allies do not cut production, Brent crude could drop to $50 per barrel in 2026 and even $40 in 2027, which would keep fuel prices at low levels for several years.
In this context, Trump has emphasized his energy slogan: "drill, baby, drill," which signifies a strong commitment to domestic extraction as a way to ensure stable and competitive prices at the pump. With this approach, he aims to present himself as a guarantor of accessible energy in contrast to what he describes as the failed policies of the past.
Is it realistic to have a gallon below 2 dollars?
The last time gasoline cost less than two dollars was in 2020, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when demand collapsed due to lockdowns and mobility restrictions.
At that time, the country was experiencing an extraordinary situation, difficult to replicate without a global crisis of significant magnitude.
Despite the optimism expressed by Trump, the U.S. press points out that the goal of having a gallon priced at two dollars faces significant structural challenges: geopolitical tensions, production costs, environmental policies, and the energy transition.
However, in a country where fuel prices directly affect the perception of economic well-being, the promise remains politically powerful. And Trump, with his ability to connect with the concerns of the average voter, knows how to leverage that symbolism to his advantage.
With his second term underway, gasoline has become one of the key talking points of his administration, an additional fuel in his agenda to solidify his legacy in the White House.
Filed under:
