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The Cuban regime presented its Economic Plan for 2026, on Thursday, in which it forecasts a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of only 1%, an announcement that triggered a wave of ridicule, disbelief, and criticism among independent economists and citizens on social media, amidst the worst economic crisis the country has faced in decades.
The projections were presented by the Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, during the sixth ordinary session of the National Assembly of People's Power, where he acknowledged that the plan is developed under the principle of "managing the crisis," mitigating the impacts of the so-called "economic war," and aiming for a "gradual recovery."
Ten key figures of the economic plan for 2026
According to official data published on Facebook by the state-run site Cubadebate, the regime's plan includes:
GDP: projected growth of 1%.
Total exports: 9.969 billion USD, an increase of 1.122 billion compared to 2025.
Goods exports: 2.53 billion USD (+765 million).
Service exports: 7.438 billion USD (+357 million).
Tourism: 2.2 million visitors, an increase of 15.8%.
Sugar production: 229,500 tons of raw sugar and 15,000 tons of refined sugar, figures that remain well below historical levels.
Total electricity generation: 18,606 GWh, with an increase of 2,688 GWh.
Renewable energy: 2,461 GWh, equivalent to 13% of the energy matrix.
Cargo transport: 30.45 million tons, a growth of 31%.
Passenger transport: 923.6 million people, just 67,400 more than in 2025.
Adjustments, deficits, and "war economy"
Alonso Vázquez admitted that by 2026 it is not possible to project expenses exceeding revenues, which is why "adjustment variants" were evaluated in key categories to reduce the fiscal deficit to a "manageable" level.
The minister reiterated that the Cuban economy is operating under a "wartime economy" scenario, characterized by a combination of external and internal factors, and attributed the worsening of the U.S. embargo as a major cause of the structural problems.
"The harmful effects of the blockade are more evident than ever in all spheres of the Cuban economy and society," he stated before Parliament.
Priorities: payments, energy, and security
The head of the MEP acknowledged that the country's limited financial resources have been focused on prioritized expenditures, such as the importation of food and fuels, the maintenance of the National Electric System, the purchase of medications, and expenses related to national defense and security.
Nevertheless, he admitted that these resources have been insufficient and that their management has proven to be "extremely complex." As an alternative, the Government claims to have prioritized, through self-financing schemes in foreign currencies, sectors deemed strategic for generating future income.
Social skepticism and lack of credibility
Despite the official discourse, the announcement of a 1% growth triggered a wave of mockery and sarcastic comments among the responses to the Cubadebate post, where many Cubans questioned the credibility of the projections, highlighting the disconnect between the figures and the everyday reality of blackouts, inflation, shortages, and the collapse of transportation.
Critical economists note that even if that growth were to occur, it would have no real impact on the quality of life of the population, following several years of accumulated economic contraction.
A 2026 with more uncertainty
The minister himself acknowledged that the outlook for 2026 could worsen further due to new actions by the United States government, although he refrained from detailing alternative scenarios.
The plan, as he explained, was developed based on projections from the national economic model, estimates for 2025, guidelines from the Council of Ministers, and proposals from state agencies and provincial governments, without the involvement of independent actors or the non-state private sector.
Meanwhile, for millions of Cubans, official projections stand in stark contrast to a reality marked by prolonged blackouts, eroded salaries, and an unprecedented exodus, which explains why a 1% growth does not generate hope, but rather skepticism and mockery.
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