The U.S. anticipates a "historic change" in Cuba in 2026 and confirms contacts within the system



Marco Rubio, Mike Hammer, Miguel Díaz-Canel, and Raúl CastroPhoto © Instagram / @usembcuba - Cubadebate

The Chargé d'Affaires of the United States Embassy in Havana, Mike Hammer, assured that 2026 could mark a turning point in the recent history of Cuba.

In statements given to the Spanish newspaper ABC, the diplomat stated: “I would say yes, there is going to be a change. In what way? We will see how,” and added that it would be a “historic change.” 

The statements come in a context of increasing pressure from the administration of President Donald Trump on the Cuban regime, following the intensification of energy sanctions and the renewed inclusion of Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism at the beginning of the current term in January 2025.

One of the most notable aspects of the interview was the confirmation that there are communications with actors within the Cuban system. Although he avoided providing details, Hammer remarked that "there are communications with certain individuals," in line with previous statements by President Trump.

He also suggested that not everyone within the power structure would be aware of these exchanges: “Some members of the regime may say there’s nothing happening; perhaps they aren’t informed, perhaps it doesn’t involve them…”.

The diplomat noted that within the system there are individuals aware that "the project is already coming to an end" and who might be interested in facilitating an exit.

According to him, Washington is seeking "a peaceful solution without bloodshed," insisting that the goal is an economic and political opening that benefits the Cuban people.

One of the central pillars of Washington's current strategy has been the blockade on oil supplies coming from Venezuela, a measure that has worsened the energy crisis on the island. Hammer argued that these decisions aim to prevent the regime from obtaining resources to sustain its repressive apparatus.

"Our policy has always been to try to prevent giving oxygen, energy, and capacity to the repressive machine of the Cuban regime," he stated. He also maintained that a significant portion of the oil that arrived on the island was not intended to alleviate the population's shortages, but was instead resold in international markets.

At the same time, he left open the possibility of evaluating assistance mechanisms that do not strengthen the ruling elite. Regarding potential limited fuel shipments, he indicated that the issue is being reviewed by the State Department. “We will make decisions based on how we can support the Cuban people without the regime taking advantage,” he emphasized.

In that regard, he recalled that following Hurricane Melissa, the United States announced humanitarian aid channeled through the Catholic Church and Caritas Cuba, aimed at ensuring that resources reach the affected individuals directly.

Hammer also assured that Washington is considering plans for the "day after" a potential political change on the island. "We have been thinking about a transition to a free Cuba for a long time. We have all kinds of plans for how it can be carried out in the least chaotic way," he stated.

The diplomat described a country with deteriorated energy, healthcare, and transportation infrastructures and criticized the fact that tourism revenues have not been reinvested for the benefit of the national economy. In his opinion, an opening up would facilitate the flow of investment and international support towards reconstruction.

While he avoided setting concrete deadlines, he stated that the current conditions are different from those of previous years. “When I arrived, people weren't talking about this. Now people don't ask if it will happen, but when,” he claimed, referring to a shift in perception both inside and outside the country. 

Hammer was particularly critical of the human rights situation on the island. He emphasized the need to release political prisoners and asserted that the Cuban regime operates as a dictatorship.

"If in a country you cannot express yourself freely and are imprisoned for holding up a sign, then tell me that it's not a dictatorship," he stated.

He also questioned the priorities of the Cuban government amid the energy crisis, pointing out that while the population faces blackouts and fuel shortages, the forces responsible for surveillance and repression still have resources to operate.

The diplomat's statements indicate a decisive year in the bilateral relationship and the political future of the island. Although he did not provide details on the upcoming steps from the White House, he reiterated that the current situation represents "a historic opportunity" after more than six decades of socialist rule.

"Never has there been an administration that has focused so much on the hemisphere and on Cuba," he concluded.

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CiberCuba Editorial Team

A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.