The Cuban-American businessman Carlos Saladrigas, president of the Cuba Study Group, was emphatic in analyzing the failure of the Obama-Cuba thaw: the process did not work because the Cuban regime did not want it to succeed, and began to reverse its own economic measures even before Air Force One left the Havana airport.
"No it didn't work because the Cuban government simply didn’t want it to. Obama opened the door to progress, opened the door to change, presented a very elegant solution for the Cuban leaders, for the Cuban people, a magnificent solution fully exercising our sovereignty, and the government refused to accept it," declared Saladrigas in an interview with CiberCuba.
Saladrigas was even more precise about the timeline of the betrayal: "What the government did after Obama left the airport was to start reversing measures they had taken even before Obama arrived in Cuba, as well as implementing policies that were counterproductive to the economy, which later caused an even greater stagnation when COVID came." Obama's historic visit to Havana took place on March 20, 2016, marking the first visit by a U.S. president in 88 years.
For Saladrigas, the responsibility is unequivocal: "The only ones to blame for this are the Cuban leaders who made terrible decisions or lacked the courage to make the necessary ones." Those counterproductive decisions, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, triggered the spiral of decline that the island is suffering today.
Regarding Biden's decision not to resume the thaw during his administration, Saladrigas was equally straightforward: "Why didn't Biden continue with the thaw? In my opinion: out of cowardice. Political cowardice."
Regarding the current negotiation process between the Trump administration and the Cuban regime, Saladrigas adopted an explicit pragmatism: "It is what it is. It's pure pragmatism." Although he would prefer that Cubans have greater agency over their own destiny, he believes that American pressure has brought the regime to a point where it must make decisions that it could have voluntarily made years ago. The Cuban regime has denied that formal negotiations exist with Washington.
The businessman, who has been advocating for Cuba's economic opening since 2001 and has trained over 15,000 entrepreneurs on the island through his project Cuba Emprende, outlined a transition plan in three phases: an initial stabilization period of two to four years with an estimated cost of between 6,000 and 10,000 million dollars, a reconstruction of infrastructure lasting about five additional years, and a phase of strategic vision in which Cuba could become a financial hub of the Caribbean comparable to Singapore or Israel.
Saladrigas warned, however, that the greatest risk of a disorderly transition is the infiltration of Latin American drug trafficking: "If this change occurs in a disorderly manner, the risks of drug trafficking from America infiltrating Cuba are very high." The Trump plan to change Cuba without removing the Castros has also sparked controversy in the exile community.
The context in which these statements are made is that of the worst economic crisis in Cuba in decades. The GDP fell by 5% in 2025, the per capita income is at just 1,082 dollars —the lowest in Latin America, 90% below the regional average—, blackouts affect 64% of the country, and the informal dollar rate has reached 580 Cuban pesos. On March 7, President Trump publicly revealed at the Summit of the Americas in Miami that Cuba "wants to negotiate" with Marco Rubio and with him.
Filed under: