The President of the United States, Donald Trump, is reportedly evaluating a strategy for Cuba based on economic pressure and a reconfiguration of internal power that, according to sources consulted by Bloomberg, aims to transform the island into a country financially dependent on Washington, in what analysts describe as a sort of American economic protectorate.
The strategy would not involve a direct military invasion, but rather a gradual process of financial pressure, energy isolation, and negotiations with figures from within the Cuban political system who could lead a controlled transition.
According to sources familiar with the deliberations in Washington, the ultimate goal would be to replace the current Cuban leadership and force a reconfiguration of the economic model that brings the island closer to the orbit of the United States.
Economic pressure to enforce dependence
According to Bloomberg, Trump intends to use economic pressure to force Cuba to become financially dependent on Washington, effectively taking on the role that the Soviet Union played during the Cold War.
Sources close to the matter explained that the plan seeks for the United States to "essentially take the place of its former rival, the Soviet Union, which kept Cuba afloat before its collapse in 1991."
In that context, Trump recently expressed confidence about the future of the Cuban regime.
“Cuba is going to fall very soon”, the leader told CNN last week.
"Cuba is ready, after 50 years," he added.
Since January, the White House has intensified economic pressure measures against Havana. Among them is the quarantine on oil destined for the Cuban government, a measure aimed at suffocating the state economically while allowing fuel supply to the emerging private sector.
Additionally, Trump reportedly used tariff threats to persuade Mexico, one of the last major oil suppliers to the island following Venezuela's exit, to suspend shipments.
Currently, the United States regulates the flow of energy to Cuba, allowing fuel sales to the private sector while blocking supply to the government.
A model inspired by Venezuela
The sources cited by Bloomberg indicate that Trump sees the recent political change in Venezuela as a model.
According to that plan, the United States would have succeeded in removing Nicolás Maduro from power through a swift operation and subsequently support an administration more aligned with Washington.
The new Venezuelan government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, has publicly maintained elements of the socialist discourse inherited from chavismo, but has cooperated with Washington in opening strategic sectors to U.S. investment.
Trump has even praised Rodríguez for his willingness to cooperate with the United States.
The strategy in Cuba would follow a similar logic: to replace the current leadership without completely dismantling the system's structure, while steering the country towards a close economic relationship with Washington.
Conversations with figures close to power
According to Bloomberg, U.S. officials have been in contact with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro.
Rodríguez Castro is a colonel in the Ministry of the Interior and maintains close ties with the military conglomerate that controls key sectors of the Cuban economy.
Within the Trump administration, some figures view him as a potential pragmatic leader capable of negotiating agreements away from revolutionary orthodoxy, according to one of the cited sources.
Washington's goal would be to replace the current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, whom they blame for the island's economic collapse and consider incapable of leading the necessary political and economic reforms.
Republican Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart confirmed this week that there are discussions with people "close" to Raúl Castro.
In an interview with CBS, the legislator stated that the current Cuban regime may not survive Trump's term, which extends until January 2029.
Rumors of intervention and the negotiated option
Speculations about a possible U.S. military action against Cuba have risen in Washington in recent weeks.
These versions have been fueled by statements from the president's allies.
Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, stated on Fox News that "Iran is going to fall, and Cuba is next."
However, people close to Trump's thinking assert that a military invasion is not the preferred option.
The current approach would be a negotiated transition within the Cuban system itself, accompanied by economic pressure to expedite the process.
Kimberly Breier, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs during Trump's first term, explained that the goal is to avoid a scenario of chaos.
"The predominant factor in both Venezuela and Cuba is stability," Breier said. "The administration wants changes, but does not want them to be chaotic, to drive massive migration, or to create more opportunities for adversaries."
According to the former official, it is "a more gradual approach, based on stability."
The reaction from Havana
From Cuba, the government has condemned Washington's energy pressure measures.
The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, described the U.S. quarantine on energy imports from the Cuban government as "a form of collective punishment that persists."
"The possibility of sales conditioned to the private sector already existed and does not alleviate the impact on the population," he stated.
For his part, President Miguel Díaz-Canel has reiterated that Cuba is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States, but only “on equal terms,” and has warned that the country is strengthening its defensive capabilities.
An economy on the brink of collapse
The U.S. plan arrives amidst a deep economic crisis on the island.
After decades of a centralized model, international sanctions, and the loss of strategic allies, the Cuban economy is facing energy shortages, inflation, and a growing humanitarian crisis.
Washington has sent 9 million dollars in humanitarian aid through the Catholic Church, aiming to prevent the funds from going through the Cuban government.
According to Bloomberg, the economic situation could provide Trump with a political opportunity to make progress in Cuba, even if his other international fronts, such as the conflict with Iran, drag on.
Nevertheless, experts indicate that the transition on the island faces significant obstacles.
For more than six decades, the Cuban political system has prohibited the existence of opposition parties, which limits the emergence of figures capable of leading a potential democratic change process.
Additionally, unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks significant oil reserves or other natural resources that would facilitate attracting large-scale foreign investments.
Despite this, the U.S. president recently asserted that the Cuban system is nearing its end.
At a summit of Latin American leaders held in Doral, Florida, Trump stated that Cuba is “in its final moments of life as it was.”
He added that, once the Iranian front is resolved, his administration will fully focus on the island.
"The focus right now is on Iran," he said.
Then he added sarcastically that Secretary of State Marco Rubio "will take an hour off and then close a deal on Cuba."
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