Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the FIU Institute of Cuban Studies, stated this Friday that the United States "will have no choice but to engage in a military operation in Cuba" to force the regime to relinquish power.
Arcos made these statements in an interview with CiberCuba, amid an unprecedented political and energy crisis on the island, with seven consecutive days of nighttime protests through pot-banging in Havana and other cities. The latest took place in Morón (Cienfuegos), where groups of young people set fire to the PCC headquarters in the area.
"I am saying that the United States will have no choice but to engage in a military operation in Cuba. To force them to relinquish power, because they will not abandon power willingly," the analyst stated.
Arcos clarified that an intervention does not necessarily mean the landing of marines, but rather remote operations such as those carried out in Iran, where the supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 in a joint bombing by the US and Israel against his residence in Tehran. "They could, just as they did with Khamenei, do it with Raúl Castro, with Díaz-Canel, with the leadership," he pointed out.
The analyst described Cuba as a militarily vulnerable target: it is only 90 miles from U.S. territory, is ten times smaller than Iran, and has a "very limited and very outdated" military capacity. "Cuba is somewhat of a military walk in the park for the United States," he stated, adding that Washington has "enough Tomahawk missiles to deal with both Iran and Cuba at the same time."
The statements come on the same day that Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuba is engaged in conversations with the United States, reversing previous denials from regime officials.
Arcos analyzed that the announcement was forced by the accumulated pressure from street protests and the Trump Administration. He also pointed out that real power does not reside with Díaz-Canel. "The real power in Cuba is in the hands of Raúl Castro, not with the president of the Republic and first secretary of the party."
As evidence of this, Arcos pointed out the presence of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro, at the meeting of the Political Bureau on March 13, despite not being a member of that body. Media outlets such as Axios and the Miami Herald have reported since February on secret conversations between Rodríguez Castro and Marco Rubio's team regarding a possible political transition.
The analyst described the release of 51 prisoners announced by Díaz-Canel as a "minimal" concession compared to the more than 1,200 political prisoners recorded in Cuba according to Prisoners Defenders.
"We are practically at ground zero in these negotiations. They have not budged at all," he said, unfavorably comparing the figure to the more than 500 released in Venezuela as part of their own negotiations.
Arcos described the regime's dilemma as a no-win situation: "If they don’t repress, the opposition grows. If they repress, they face the United States." Regarding the incident of the February 25th in Cayos Falcones, where Cuban Border Guards killed four of the ten crew members of a vessel coming from Florida (a fifth died later after being injured), the analyst stated that "it has all the signs of being an operation prepared by Cuban intelligence."
On that same March 13, Trump publicly dismissed direct military actions against Cuba, opting for economic pressure, while Democratic senators introduced a resolution to prevent attacks without Congressional approval.
Arcos, however, maintained his forecast: "I hope they retain a certain dose of rationality, because the future that awaits us in the coming weeks depends on that."
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