Stability at highs: The dollar is frozen in Cuba amid economic uncertainty and political tension

The informal currency market in Cuba is experiencing a phase of apparent calm that, rather than reflecting an economic improvement, reveals a fragile balance at historically high levels.

In recent days, the dollar has remained at 515 CUP and the euro at 580 CUP, while the MLC continues to be the only currency with visible fluctuations.

This stability establishes what analysts refer to as a "high plateau": a point at which supply and demand are balanced, but under crisis conditions.

The Cuban peso is not recovering, but there is also not much room for sustained increases due to the limited purchasing power of the population.

One of the key factors is the lack of liquidity in pesos. With low salaries and persistent inflation, many Cubans cannot access foreign currency at increasingly high prices, which reduces the upward pressure on the market.

However, the current behavior cannot be explained solely by economic variables. An essential element contributes to this apparent stability: political and geopolitical uncertainty.

The recent capture of Nicolás Maduro and the new situation in Venezuela have directly impacted the perception of stability of the Cuban regime, a traditional ally of chavismo.

This is complemented by statements from U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, indicating a potential transition in Cuba within the context of a more aggressive Washington policy towards Havana.

This context creates a dual effect in the currency market. On one hand, it reinforces the demand for foreign currencies as a safe haven amid uncertainty. On the other hand, it slows down operations due to the expectation of possible political or economic changes, which contributes to the current paralysis.

In this scenario, the MLC acts as a more dynamic indicator, with fluctuations linked to domestic consumption and the availability of products in state stores, unlike the dollar and the euro, which are more associated with savings and value protection.

In summary, the current stability is not a sign of improvement, but rather of exhaustion. The market is not declining because the peso remains weak, but it is also not rising as the population has reached a limit in its purchasing power, amid uncertainty that is no longer solely economic, but also political.