The Venezuelan political scientist Isaac Nahón Serfaty, a professor at the University of Ottawa, identified Trump's need to present a trophy to the American people as the main motivation for the president to decide to deliver what the expert referred to as "the final blow" against the Cuban dictatorship.
Nahón Serfaty explained this past Monday in a live interview with CiberCuba, in which he analyzed the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran on the political change prospects in Cuba.
"That could probably be a motivation for Trump to decide to deliver the final blow," said the expert, referring to the need for the Republican administration to demonstrate a decisive outcome following the ambiguous results obtained in Iran.
However, Nahón Serfaty warned that the only reason Cuba remains on Trump’s agenda is the presence of Marco Rubio in the government: "If Marco Rubio were not in the Trump Administration, the issue of Cuba would likely take a backseat."
The expert was direct in pointing out a weakness of the president. "Trump has a very low attention span and becomes impatient if he doesn't achieve results, at least the results that he thinks he could achieve."
That factor, combined with the oil shock stemming from the conflict with Iran and the pressure of the midterm elections in November 2026, represents, in his view, the main risk for the island: "The risk for Cuba is that Cuba becomes a secondary issue on this government's agenda".
Regarding the Democrats, Nahón Serfaty was emphatic in responding whether it benefits Cubans wanting change for that party to gain power in the U.S.: "Probably not. Because we have seen that the Democrats pretend that it is possible to coexist with the dictatorship. I believe Obama clearly demonstrated this when he visited Cuba; he was extremely lenient and really did not help at all to bring about change. On the contrary, I believe that he strengthened the communist dictatorship in Cuba."
The expert's analysis also included an assessment of Russia's role in the current geopolitical landscape: "Russia is truly an empty shell. It has nothing to do with what the Soviet Union once was and does not pose a significant issue, it is not a major player," he stated, noting that the real strategic actor to watch is China, due to its patience and absence of electoral pressures.
Nahón Serfaty also pointed out that all authoritarian regimes —the Cuban, the Iranian, and the Venezuelan under Delcy Rodríguez— share the same strategy: "All these regimes seek to enter the logic of negotiation because what they want is to buy time. They intend to stay there forever."
"I hope that he wants to include the liberation of Cuba among his achievements, among his legacy. I wish that were the case," concluded the expert at the end of the interview, convinced that the Cuban regime is a symbol and that if it falls with Trump, it would represent the end of an era.
Filed under: