The possibility of an extreme scenario for Cuba is back on the table. In an interview with CiberCuba, analyst Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University, stated that the United States might eventually be driven to take military action regarding the situation in the country.
The expert addressed the different paths being discussed in American political and media circles regarding the future of the island. He explained that four main scenarios are being considered: immobility—allowing the crisis to run its course without intervention—exclusively economic changes, a complete regime change, or military intervention.
However, Arcos was clear in pointing out which he considers more likely in the long term. "Unfortunately, I believe that the nature of the regime is such that there will be no choice but to lead to a military situation," he stated, although he clarified that this would not necessarily imply an invasion with troops on the ground.
The analyst insisted that there is strong resistance within American society itself to sending soldiers to conflicts that are not perceived as a direct threat to national security. In that regard, he emphasized that Cuba does not hold the same level of priority as other international scenarios such as Iran, a conflict that—he explained—continues to capture Washington's strategic attention.
"I highly doubt that the United States will take any action in Cuba without first resolving the issue with Iran in one way or another," he noted, pointing to the influence of public opinion on the decision-making process of the White House.
Beyond the hypotheses, the expert himself urged caution. He recalled that many analyses published in the U.S. press have previously failed in their predictions about Cuba, which is why he recommended viewing these scenarios with skepticism.
Amidst this debate, recent statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio also echo, as he has indicated that both the economy and the political system in Cuba must change, implying that real transformation on the island necessarily involves deep reforms.
Meanwhile, inside and outside of Cuba, millions of citizens continue to watch with uncertainty the direction of the country. In a context marked by economic crisis, massive migration, and a lack of expectations, any scenario—from stagnation to external intervention—has a direct impact on the lives of Cubans, who continue to hope for a change that seems to be delayed.
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