Modesto Maidique, former president of Florida International University (FIU) from 1986 to 2009, stated in an interview given this Wednesday to CiberCuba that the United States could take control of Cuba's air and maritime space in just 48 hours, without the need for a ground invasion, as revealed to him by a three-star admiral who was his student.
Maidique recounted that when he was leading an academic program at FIU, he took advantage of the fact that one of his students was a three-star admiral to ask him a direct question: "If the United States wanted to 'take ownership' of Cuba, how difficult would it be and how long would it take?"
The response was unequivocal: "In 48 hours, the Cuban navy would disappear and the Cuban air forces would vanish. Then the country would be completely vulnerable to the conditions imposed by the United States without firing another shot," he replied.
Despite this military assessment, Maidique dismissed the idea that a ground invasion is the most likely or desirable option. "I believe that military action would bring immense suffering, not just to the Cubans in Cuba, but also to the Cubans here, as we all have relatives, friends, aunts, uncles, brothers. I think that is a drastic measure," he noted.
In contrast, the former rector who made FIU great pointed to a less violent but equally devastating option for the regime: "What we might see is the United States taking control of both the sea and the air around Cuba."
Maidique added that closing the island's ports would cause a "dramatic change in a very short time," and that any military action would be aimed more at armaments—ships, airplanes, or missiles—than at the civilian population.
The analysis by Maidique gains importance in light of the severe deterioration of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR). The Cuban army has barely 50,000 active personnel, a budget of about 118 million dollars, and outdated Soviet equipment. Its navy and air force are considered practically inoperable due to a lack of fuel and ongoing power outages that have paralyzed the island, including five total blackouts in 2025 and one in January 2026.
The statements from the former rector come at a time of heightened tension between Washington and Havana. President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14380 on January 29, 2026, declaring the Cuban regime an "extraordinary threat" to national security. Since then, Trump has increased his remarks about Cuba: on March 16, he stated that he would have "the honor of taking Cuba"; on March 27, he claimed Cuba is next, but asked the press to pretend he hadn’t said it; and on April 15, he suggested a possible action following the conflict with Iran.
Regarding how to interpret the rhetoric of the U.S. president, Maidique offered precise advice: "In the case of President Trump, it's best to virtually ignore what he says, but to listen closely and pay a lot of attention to what he does." He compared Trump's unpredictability to the long-term vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping, noting that while one thinks in decades and generations, the other acts "every three minutes."
The Cuban regime declared a general mobilization on January 18, 2026, in response to a perceived threat, while the U.S. chargé d'affaires in Havana, Mike Hammer, predicted that same month a "historic change" on the island during 2026, stating that there are individuals within the regime who know that the project is coming to an end.
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