The President of the United States, Donald Trump, claimed that very soon the great strength of the U.S. military will bring "a new dawn for Cuba," at a Turning Point USA rally held this Friday in Phoenix, Arizona, and described that moment as "70 years in the waiting."
Trump's words, captured on video and widely circulated, were straightforward. The president explicitly appealed to the Cuban-American community, describing its members as people "brutally treated, whose families were murdered and brutalized," and concluded with a warning laden with symbolism: "And now, look at what happens."
The statement is not an isolated fact, but rather the last link in a chain of increasingly explicit remarks. On April 15, just two days earlier, Trump had said: "We might stop in Cuba after we finish with this," referring to the conflict with Iran. On March 27, in Miami Beach, he jokingly asserted: Cuba is next, but pretend I didn't say that. And on March 16 he declared from the White House: "I think I will have the honor of taking Cuba."
In the same forum, Trump bragged about having "built this great army" and cited the successful capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela in January of this year and the Epic Fury Operation against Iran, launched on February 28, as precedents for success. Both actions have been presented by his administration as demonstrations of the capability and willingness to use force in the region.
The geopolitical context surrounding these statements is highly tense. USA Today revealed on April 15, citing anonymous sources, that the Pentagon may have accelerated planning for a possible military operation in Cuba. Experts consulted by the outlet indicated that an intervention would be "easy" given the deterioration of Cuban forces, though they warned that the real challenge would be the subsequent reconstruction. Meanwhile, the Operation Southern Lance has seized several Venezuelan tankers that were supplying energy to the island, and there have been reports of diplomatic contacts between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and associates of the Castro family to explore a possible transition.
The Cuban regime responded with resistance rhetoric. One day before Trump's speech, Miguel Díaz-Canel warned of a possible U.S. military aggression, invoking the anniversary of the Bay of Pigs invasion and urging the people to prepare to fight back. On April 7, in statements to Newsweek, he had warned of a guerrilla war involving the entire population and predicted "immense losses" for any invading force. The Cuban government declared 2026 as the "Year of Preparation for Defense" and has activated military maneuvers and the so-called "Defense Saturdays."
The rhetoric of the "new dawn" also has an evident domestic political dimension. Miami-Dade County is home to approximately 1.2 million descendants of Cubans, and Trump secured 58% of the Cuban-American vote in the 2024 elections. Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart captured the sentiment of this sector on February 9: the regime in Cuba has never been as weak, urging Trump to implement zero tolerance against Havana.
The absence of a concrete announced plan and analysts' warnings about the humanitarian and geopolitical consequences of any military action stand in stark contrast to the increasingly intense presidential rhetoric, which has shifted in just a few weeks from insinuation to an open promise.
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