A new process of rapprochement between Cuba and the United States is progressing in the shadows, with carefully managed public signals and negotiations that, according to analysts, go much further than both parties officially acknowledge.
The jurist and political scientist Roberto Veiga, director of Cuba Próxima, analyzed the interview that Miguel Díaz-Canel gave to Brazilian journalist Breno Altman, founder of Opera Mundi, and shared his thoughts with CiberCuba.
Veiga was emphatic: "This interview he is giving is part of the management of the negotiations taking place between the Plaza de la Revolución and the White House."
Veiga warned that appearances can be deceiving: "They say they are addressing the issues in a preliminary manner, but in these negotiations, things always progress further than what is said."
The use of Opera Mundi as a channel is not coincidental. The Brazilian progressive left media outlet, with privileged access to Havana, reflects the Cuban regime's tradition of using ideologically aligned intermediaries to send diplomatic signals without formally committing to its own political base.
The parallel with the Obama-Castro process is unavoidable. That thaw, announced on December 17, 2014, included the restoration of diplomatic relations, the reopening of embassies, and Obama's historic visit to Havana in March 2016.
However, it failed to bring about real political changes: the regime did not liberalize, there were no elections, and repression continued. Trump's arrival in 2017 reversed much of the measures.
The most significant structural difference in 2026 is that Washington is not negotiating with the formal government, but directly with the Castro family.
The most revealing element of the actual level of the conversations was the parallel and separate meeting that a senior official from the State Department held on April 10 with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro —the grandson of Raúl Castro, known as "el Cangrejo"— which was confirmed by both Washington and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Rodríguez Castro, 41 years old, does not hold an official position in the government, but he acts as a trusted man for his grandfather.
That same day, April 10, marked another milestone: the first U.S. government flight to Havana since 2016, with a delegation from the Department of State that met with Cuban officials in what the Deputy General Director of MINREX for the United States, Alejandro García del Toro, described as a "serious, respectful, and professional" conversation.
Since February 2026, Rodríguez Castro maintained surprisingly friendly contacts with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and in April sent a secret letter to Trump himself—via businessman Roberto Carlos Chamizo González—proposing economic agreements and the lifting of sanctions.
The U.S. plan, according to Bloomberg, aims for a "Cubastroika": to turn Cuba into a country financially dependent on the U.S. without military intervention, with relief from sanctions, an opening to tourism, and agreements on ports and energy.
The specific demands from Washington include the release of political prisoners like Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel Osorbo, compensation for confiscated properties, access to the internet via Starlink, and the lifting of political restrictions.
This thaw 2.0 occurs from a position of maximum Cuban weakness: the GDP fell by 5% in 2025, the peso devalued by 47.8% in one year—from 345 to 510 pesos per dollar—and the per capita GDP barely reaches 1,082.8 dollars, the lowest in Latin America.
Veiga also noted a change in Díaz-Canel's body language as a possible indicator that some decisions have already been made.
"Having already decided that the Castro family and the environment of the White House will head in a certain direction, he is already involved. Some decisions have already been made; he is implicated, knows he will be in the immediate moment, knows what is intended, and believes he will be able to handle it. He is minimally empowered in the process."
However, Díaz-Canel himself made the regime's position clear in his interview with Opera Mundi: he is open to dialogue "as long as it is from a position of respect for our sovereignty and independence".
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