The U.S. State Department first met exclusively with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro known as "El Cangrejo," before sitting down with the Cuban Foreign Ministry during its visit to Havana on April 10.
This fact reveals that the true interlocutor of Washington is not Miguel Díaz-Canel, but rather the GAESA environment, the military conglomerate that controls between 40% and 70% of the Cuban economy.
That sequence — first real power, then formal power — defines the logic of the negotiations between Cuba and the United States in 2026.
"The negotiations must be taking place with them. I imagine. And that's why he comes into the picture, right? He is the member of the Castro family who has a direct connection to that conglomerate," noted one of the analysts who examined the progress of these contacts.
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro is 41 years old, a lieutenant colonel of the MININT, and has been the personal security chief of his grandfather since 2016.
No holds an official public position, but his direct connection with GAESA makes him the most significant figure of the Castro family in negotiations.
The conglomerate it represents accumulates revenues 3.2 times higher than the Cuban State Budget and controls 95% of foreign currency transactions on the island.
Its architecture was established by General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, former husband of Déborah Castro, daughter of Raúl, who passed away in July 2022.
"What would have happened if López Calleja was alive? He would have been the one negotiating this, wouldn’t he? These are interests. Economic interests," the same source pointed out.
Díaz-Canel, according to analysts, participates in the process but in a secondary role: he will be the one to implement what is decided, not the one who decides it.
The jurist Roberto Veiga, director of Cuba Próxima, summarized it accurately: Díaz-Canel "is minimally empowered in the process." His involvement exists, but it does not equate to leadership.
Washington bets on this environment because it understands that stability in Cuba is not built solely through political rhetoric.
"With ideology alone, they will not succeed. It is necessary to seek concrete funding and concrete capability for economic and social management," warned one of the analysts consulted.
The only members of the regime's leadership who have physically left Cuba in the context of these negotiations are the official identified as Pérez Bolívar Fraga and "El Cangrejo" himself, who, according to media reports met in the Caribbean with the team of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The contrast with Venezuela is revealing. Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan vice president, met in Doha with CIA agents as reported by the newspaper ABC, but she did so far from her country. In Cuba, on the other hand, contacts can happen directly on the island. The reason is structural: "In Cuba, there is only one [family in power]. The others revolve around the benefits it provides."
This relationship between the Castro environment and Washington is not new. "The relationship of Delsi Rodríguez and the brother with the United States had already been intense even since the previous administration. Very intense. The levels of conversation, dialogue, interaction, and certain trusts had already existed. They did not begin with this administration," clarified the source of the analysis.
The visit on April 10 was the first official flight of a U.S. government plane to Cuba since 2016.
The Deputy Director General of MINREX for the U.S., Alejandro García del Toro, described the meeting as "serious, respectful, and professional." However, the sequence of the meetings—first the clan, then the formal diplomacy—made it clear who has the voice that matters.
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