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A survey on political and social perspectives in Cuba that publishes its results in real time, aggregated and anonymously, addresses one of the most sensitive questions in the debate about the country's future: whether a political transition that does not include judicial processing for current government figures would be acceptable.
The question touches on the core of the dilemma between transitional justice and negotiated impunity, a debate that deeply divides Cubans both on the island and abroad at a time when the prospects for change seem more tangible than ever.
In the survey, still open, so far 57.9% of respondents believe that "It is unacceptable. There must be justice and full accountability".
On the other hand, 24.7% say that "I could accept it only for minor offenses, but not for serious human rights violations," 14.4% believe that "It would be acceptable if it guarantees a peaceful transition," and 3.3% do not have a defined position.
The context is one of a Cuba in historical crisis: collapse of the electrical system, extreme food shortages, massive emigration, and an economy in free fall.
The pressure from the United States under the Trump administration—through ultimatums, sanctions, and direct diplomatic meetings in Havana in April 2026—has added a new sense of urgency to these scenarios.
The positions in the debate revolve around three main models. The first advocates for full justice, with judicial processing of those responsible for crimes, a position maintained by a significant portion of the historical exile.
The second proposes a negotiated amnesty that provides personal guarantees to figures of the regime in exchange for an orderly transition, similar to the models of Spain or South Africa.
The third proposes a differentiated transitional justice: amnesty for lesser political crimes, but with the possibility of trial for serious crimes.
The Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba and the Amnesty Action Forum 2026 advocate for a Law of Amnesty and Decriminalization of Dissent —general and full, except for serious crimes— as part of a roadmap for national reconstruction.
A citizen petition for that law, submitted to the National Assembly on February 4, 2026, gathered 2,155 verified signatures, supported by Article 61 of the Constitution and Law 167/2023.
From exile, voices like that of the Cuban-American congresswoman María Elvira Salazar reject any formula that would guarantee impunity for Díaz-Canel and the high-ranking officials of the regime. "The tyranny has an expiration date," she declared in April 2026, urging Cuba to follow the example of what happened with Maduro.
The ex-military pilot Orestes Lorenzo was more direct in January 2026: "For the first time in history, impunity has ended in Cuba for the murderers who always had it."
Analysts propose a scenario of negotiated transition that offers personal guarantees to the regime in exchange for the release of political prisoners, the legalization of parties, and the holding of supervised elections, avoiding retaliation while prioritizing human rights.
The recommendation circulating among experts is that "civil society should unify demands in terms of rights, not revenge."
Recent survey data depicts a Cuban society that is largely fed up with the current system. 79% of Cubans believe that socialism has failed, according to a Henderson study from 2026.
Among the Cubans in South Florida, 69% reject negotiations that would allow the regime to remain in power without a real democratic transition, free elections, or the dismantling of the current system.
The Venezuelan case—where the capture of Maduro and the release of political prisoners occurred under U.S. pressure in 2025-2026—serves as an immediate reference point in the Cuban debate, both for those demanding trials and for those fearing that the pursuit of justice might hinder any negotiated solution.
The ongoing survey, with distribution by province, age, education, and political opinion, provides a real-time snapshot of how Cubans themselves respond to that question that no political actor can evade: how much justice is a society willing to sacrifice to achieve freedom?
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