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A collective survey on political and social perspectives in Cuba, launched on Thursday by a coalition of over 20 independent digital media outlets, shows that a significant portion of participants supports maintaining or intensifying external pressure measures against the Cuban regime, including the U.S. embargo.
The survey, driven among others by El Toque and Rialta, remains open until May 1 and has garnered more than 12,100 responses in its first 48 hours. Its data is broken down by province, age, education, and political opinion, and any conclusions should be interpreted as a partial snapshot of the moment.
According to the preliminary results of the survey, 46.6% of respondents believe that the embargo should remain as a tool of pressure to force democratic changes on the island. Another 24.4% think it should be gradually lifted as Cuba makes progress in political and economic reforms.
The positions favoring its complete removal are in the minority. 12.4% believe that the embargo should be lifted entirely and unconditionally. In contrast, 10.6% think that the measure should be intensified in strategic sectors such as energy, while 6.0% state that they do not have a defined position.
Regarding the forms of external pressure that respondents deem acceptable, the most supported option was the direct military intervention by the United States, mentioned by 60.4% of those surveyed.
They are followed by sanctions specifically targeting government officials, with 54.7%, and increased multilateral diplomatic pressure from international organizations such as the UN, the OAS, or the European Union, at 50.7%.
Other measures receive less support. 20.3% back international funding for civil society groups within Cuba, while 14.7% support an increase in the energy blockade.
On the other hand, 12.1% lean towards negotiated agreements that ensure a transition with partial continuity of the regime. Only 5.2% believe that the country's conflicts should be resolved exclusively internally, without international pressure.
The survey takes place against a backdrop marked by the deepest economic and social crisis Cuba has experienced since 1959, during which the country has witnessed a 23% drop in GDP since 2019, while blackouts reach up to 20 hours a day in several areas and 89% of the population lives in extreme poverty, according to the Food Monitor Program.
In this scenario, the debate regarding the role of the U.S. embargo takes on central importance. The government of Miguel Díaz-Canel systematically attributes the crisis to Washington's "economic war," while independent economists argue that the main causes lie in the rigidity of the political system, state control of the economy, and the lack of structural reforms.
The overall results of the survey also reflect a strong rejection of the current system. 75.1% of participants state that they prefer a capitalist model of liberal democracy and market economy, while more than 91% support some form of deep structural change in the country.
Dissatisfaction with the government is also reported at very high levels. 92% of respondents declare that they are very dissatisfied with the current system, and Díaz-Canel receives an average rating of 1.11 out of five points, with 93.7% of participants giving him the lowest possible score.
In an open-ended question about public figures with favorable performance, 63.4% of respondents wrote answers such as "none," "no one is good," or "everyone is corrupt," a figure that reflects the deep discredit that, according to the survey, prevails in the country's political leadership.
A poll by El Nuevo Herald that irritated the official press revealed that 73% of Cubans and Cuban Americans in South Florida attribute the crisis to the Cuban government, not to the embargo, and 79% support some form of military intervention by the United States.
The official newspaper Granma described those results as "lies" and accused exile media of promoting "hate, violence, and terrorism."
On its part, a March YouGov poll showed that 40% of Americans disapprove of the embargo, compared to 32% who approve, a fact that Chancellor Bruno Rodríguez shared on social media.
In May 2024, only 3% of Cubans identified firmly as socialist and 85.9% wished for a shift towards a more open model, according to CubaData, a trend that the preliminary results of the collective survey seem to confirm and deepen.
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