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A analysis by the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council warns that the executive order signed by Trump on May 1, 2026, does not target the Cuban regime exclusively but extends its reach globally, with Europe—particularly Spain—identified as a significant secondary target at higher risk.
The 2,143-word document, according to the analysis, "is the political version of a storm cloud that measures the length and width of the Cuban archipelago, with small storm clouds scattered toward other countries, particularly those with ties to the Cuban government."
The order, which took effect immediately without prior notice to prevent rapid asset transfers, blocks the assets of foreign individuals linked to key Cuban sectors and imposes secondary sanctions on financial institutions that conduct business with the designated individuals.
The analysis identifies the European Union as "the weakest link" in the response chain, citing the 2019 precedent when Brussels promised to hire legal counsel in the United States in response to the activation of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act but never followed through.
This inaction, according to the analysis, ensures that the White House "has nothing to fear in terms of retaliation" from the new order. Statements of opposition, far from discouraging Trump, serve as political fuel for him.
Within Europe, the country with the greatest exposure is Spain. According to the analysis, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is "directly in the political crosshairs, the rangefinder, and the telescopic view of Donald Trump."
The most vulnerable company is Meliá Hotels International, based in Palma de Mallorca, which operates 33 hotels in Cuba under management contracts with Gaviota ranging from 25 to 30 years, making it the largest foreign hotel operator on the island.
Its executive director, Gabriel Escarrer, and about 20 executives have been banned from entering the United States since 2021 under Title IV of the Helms-Burton Act, and the company is facing around 6,000 claims valued at nearly 8 billion euros.
The analysis clearly indicates that Meliá and Spanish financial institutions could be pointed out "not necessarily because they legitimately contradict the provisions of the executive order, but rather due to the satisfaction Trump would derive from pressuring Sánchez."
The tensions between both leaders date back to March 2026, when Spain denied the use of its military bases in Rota and Morón for the operation "Epic Fury" against Iran, which prompted Trump to threaten to cut "all trade" with Spain and label it a "terrible ally."
Following that crisis, Spain closed its airspace to operations related to the Iranian conflict, further escalating diplomatic tension.
In April, Sánchez organized an international progressive coalition in Barcelona that directly targeted Trump's policies.
The order of May 1 is part of a strategy of accumulated pressure since January 2025: more than 240 sanctions against the Cuban regime, a reduction of the island's oil imports by 80-90%, and blackouts of up to 25 hours a day in more than 55% of the territory.
The Intelligence Unit of The Economist forecasts an economic contraction of 7.2% for Cuba in 2026.
The G7 meeting in June, which France will host with Spain represented by tradition despite not being a member, is shaping up to be the next stage for confrontation.
According to the analysis, Trump "is eager, salivating at the prospect of a confrontation with Prime Minister Sánchez."
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