The Cuban analyst based in Mexico, Rubén Cortés, put forward a controversial thesis: the "macro" sanctions signed by Trump may impact the wallets of Cuban leaders, but the true support for the regime does not come from Moscow or Beijing, but from Miami.
«Miami is the one that sustains the daily operation of the Cuban system. The true lifeline of the Cuban system is Miami,» Cortés stated in an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba.
He referred to the context of the executive order signed by Trump on May 1 that dramatically expands sanctions against the dictatorship, including for the first time secondary measures against foreign companies and banks.
According to Cortés, since the year 2000, Cuba has successively relied on three economic lifelines. The first was Venezuela, which provided fuel, but that support collapsed in January.
The second sector was tourism, which also collapsed after the COVID pandemic, along with the subsequent decline in service quality and the intensification of conflicts with the United States in the current geopolitical context.
"Now no one is going to go to Cuba, a country marked as a target for intervention at any moment," he explained.
The third lifeline of the Cuban regime is the only one that remains strong today, and it is the Cuban community in Miami.
«The coffee, seasonings, solar panels, etc. are going from Miami to Cuba. The survival of Cuba is in Miami», insisted the analyst.
He described a daily flow of goods that includes television screens, food, modern cars, and other package shipments, even by companies listed in U.S. sanctions.
Cortés identifies in this phenomenon a structural contradiction that no one in Washington dares to address: the Cuban-American lobby.
"You cannot touch Miami because in Miami there is the vote of the Cuban lobby, which is the most powerful in the United States, along with the Israeli lobby," he noted.
The paradox, according to the analyst, is mathematically striking: Cubans represent only 0.69% of Miami's population, a figure that he himself describes as "a drop in the ocean." However, this tiny group has between four and six congress members, one or two senators, and even a Cuban mayor in New Jersey.
"It is such a powerful lobby that it influences U.S. politics and makes Cuba a domestic issue," Cortés stated, explaining why no administration has dared to cut off that flow.
The analyst also notes a duality that defines exile.
"You can't alienate Miami voters because Miami voters do want — 67% say they want the United States to intervene in Cuba — but they also want to keep sending money every day to their grandmother, their uncle, their mother, their father for survival."
However, remittances from the U.S. to Cuba are estimated at 3 billion dollars annually, becoming the only stable source of income for the island.
After the inclusion of Orbit S.A. in the list of restricted entities in February 2025, remittances have been funneled through informal channels, with fees reaching up to 40% for every 100 dollars.
Cortés also points out that the regime is well aware of this pressure game and always responds with the same strategy: "Stretch the rubber band to buy time." He adds that Trump's executive order confirms maximum pressure, but history carries more weight.
"There has not been a U.S. president since Kennedy with whom the Cuban government has not had successful negotiations on various issues," he stated.
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