The Cuban analyst Rubén Cortés, residing in Mexico, recently proposed a hypothesis that has sparked debate on social media.
In their opinion, the Iranian government could have introduced weapons into Cuba through Venezuela, and this strategic uncertainty would explain why the United States has not carried out a military intervention on the island.
The theory was presented during an interview with CiberCuba, in the context of the escalating tension between Washington and Havana.
What did Iran do in Cuba? We do not know what Iran brought to Cuba through Venezuela. We do not know. We do not know what is really in Cuba, Cortés stated, acknowledging the speculative nature of his assertion regarding the type of weapons that the Cuban regime holds.
The analyst was blunt in pointing out the possible implications: "Perhaps the United States hasn't invaded Cuba for that reason, because maybe the situation isn't so simple. Maybe there are weapons. In other words, we don't know."
To support his theory, Cortés invoked a specific historical precedent: the case of the North Korean ship Chong Chon Gang, intercepted in Panama in July 2013 with hidden Cuban weapons concealed under 220,000 bags of sugar.
That ship was carrying two MiG-21 fighter jets, anti-aircraft batteries, and disassembled rockets. The UN Sanctions Committee confirmed that the cargo violated international resolutions.
The second precedent that Cortés invoked was the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. “The same was thought during the October crisis, and there were missiles in San Cristóbal at the corner of my house,” he recalled.
He argued that "real politics is one thing and street politics is another," criticizing the casualness with which opinions about Cuba's military capabilities are expressed on social media.
There is a third element that Cortés did not mention, but it is important to add to the analysis. In 2023, Miguel Díaz-Canel received in Havana the then Iranian president Seyed Ebrahim Raisi during his tour of Latin America.
Both highlighted the good state of diplomatic relations between Cuba and Iran, founded on cooperation and mutual respect. They also expressed their intention to enhance economic and commercial ties, particularly in the areas of energy, food, health, and biotechnology.
During the meeting, they agreed to reject the sanctions imposed by the United States against both countries and advocated for strengthening bilateral collaboration in strategic sectors.
Perception of Cubans regarding a possible attack by the United States on Cuba
"Social media has the unique aspect that everyone has an opinion, and anything that comes to mind we immediately put on our phones. This is great for freedom of expression, but sometimes these opinions lack weight," Cortés said.
The analyst questioned those who believe the narrative of the images from the May Day parade in Cuba, where ox-drawn carts were seen pulling cannons.
That's part of a show, right? It's part of a show to portray a brave people," he warned, pointing out that this public image does not necessarily reflect the real capacity of the Cuban armed forces on the ground.
The backdrop of these statements is the escalating tension between Washington and Havana.
Cortés's warnings come after statements from President Trump announcing the possibility that, after the war with Iran concludes, he may position the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln "a couple of hundred yards off the Cuban coast."
On May 1st, Trump signed an executive order expanding sanctions against Cuba, and days later he stated that "we will be taking Cuba almost immediately."
On his part, Díaz-Canel warned of an "imminent military aggression" from the United States and invoked the doctrine of the "War of All the People."
Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba: The Triad That Obsesses Trump
The alliance between Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba has documented precedents. Analysts assert that Iran transferred drone technology, anti-ship missiles, and electronic warfare equipment to Venezuela. The chavista regime has historically acted as a logistical channel in Central America and the Caribbean.
However, there is no public confirmation of direct military transfers from Iran to Cuba, which is precisely the core of Cortés' speculation.
He concluded his analysis with a phrase that summarizes the current situation of the regime and reveals the U.S. geopolitical strategy to weaken that triad. "Cuba is trying to withstand in a new environment." It is an environment that the regime does not know. And now, no one is helping them.
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