The analyst Rubén Cortés proposed a theory that has sparked debate: Iran may have introduced weaponry in Cuba via Venezuela, and this uncertainty could explain why the United States has not carried out a military intervention on the island.
The hypothesis was proposed during an interview on the CiberCuba program hosted by Tania Costa, in the context of Trump's new sanctions and his statements regarding a possible military action against the Cuban regime.
"What did Iran do in Cuba? We don't know what Iran brought into Cuba through Venezuela. We don't know. We don't know what's really in Cuba," Cortés stated, explicitly acknowledging the speculative nature of his assertion.
The analyst was blunt in highlighting the implications of that uncertainty: "Perhaps they haven't invaded Cuba because of that. Because maybe the situation isn't so simple. Maybe there are weapons. In other words, we don't know."
To support his argument, Cortés recalled the precedent of the North Korean ship Chong Chon Gang, intercepted in Panama in July 2013 with hidden Cuban weapons under 220,000 bags of sugar: two MiG-21 planes, anti-aircraft batteries, and disassembled rockets.
Cuba acknowledged the ownership of that cargo but described it as "obsolete" weaponry traveling to North Korea for repairs.
The analyst also referenced the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 as the highest historical precedent: "The same thoughts were held in '62 during the October crisis, and there were missiles in San Cristóbal at the corner of my house, at the end of the river."
Cortés, who claims to have lived near San Cristóbal, in Pinar del Río, used that memory to argue that "real politics goes one way and street politics goes another."
In this regard, he criticized the casualness with which opinions are expressed on social media about Cuba's military capabilities: "We all have an opinion, and whatever comes to our mind, we quickly put it on our phones while we’re in the bathroom, while we’re waiting for the bus, and we post whatever we think of."
The analyst also questioned the images of military preparations with ox-drawn carts pulling cannons: "That's part of a show, you know? It's part of a show to portray a strong-willed people," warning that this public image does not necessarily reflect the actual capabilities of the armed forces on the ground.
The backdrop of these statements is the escalating tension between Washington and Havana. Trump signed a new executive order on May 1, expanding sanctions against Cuba, and during a private dinner in West Palm Beach, he threatened to send the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to within a hundred yards of Cuban shores, upon returning from Iran. Days later, Díaz-Canel warned of an "imminent military aggression" from the United States and invoked the doctrine of the "War of All the People."
To describe the accumulated pressure from Washington, Cortés used an image: "The United States keeps pressing, little by little; it's like a swarm of mosquitoes tormenting a donkey. It doesn't kill the donkey, but it makes its life miserable."
The chancellor Bruno Rodríguez also responded to Trump's threats rejecting any possibility of surrender, while opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer stated that the regime will ultimately yield power under pressure.
The Iran-Venezuela-Cuba alliance is a precedent that reinforces Cortés's concerns: Iran has transferred drone technology, anti-ship missiles, and military capabilities to Venezuela that have historically served as a channel to Cuba. Analysts note that rebuilding the U.S. arsenal after operations in Iran could take months or even years, adding complexity to any military action scenarios in the Caribbean.
Cortés concluded his analysis with a phrase that summarizes his perspective on the moment: "Cuba is trying to endure in a new environment. No one is helping it."
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