Bad inflation data in Cuba during the first four months of 2026

The threat of inflation continues to illustrate that the Cuban economy remains deeply entrenched in a severe crisis of rising prices that the authorities are unable to control, despite ongoing references in political discourse to the stabilization of the economy. Inflation remains abnormally high and the various components of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) indicate a persistence of upward expectations that forecasts worse outcomes in the coming months.

The information published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) regarding the month of April is as follows:

The overall CPI for April recorded an increase of 1.56% compared to March, bringing the year-to-date total to 7.18%, while the year-on-year rate compared to the same month last year rose to 14.73%. If this trend continues in the remaining months, 2026 could end with an inflation rate around 25%.

These data are used to compare the dynamics of the different components of the CPI.

The highest monthly variation occurred in Transportation, at 2.7% (the energy crisis is wreaking havoc on the weakened economy, significantly affecting costs), and closely following was Restaurants and Hotels at 2.4%; Education, at 1.65% (one of the achievements of the revolution that families now have to pay for), and also Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, at 1.64%. In summary, these are goods and services that have a major impact on the lives of all Cubans. The smallest price increases were seen in Communications and Health.

The accumulated inflation that has reached the highest percentage in the first four months was once again in Transportation at 17.17%, followed by Restaurants and Hotels at 11.68%. Both components indicate that inflation in Cuba is out of control and is fueled by optimistic expectations related to the energy and humanitarian crisis that the country is experiencing.

Finally, with the year-on-year variation rate, Transportation at 21.51% and Restaurants and Hotels at 24.66% lead the other components. Further behind, but still above the average, are Education (18.67%), one of the achievements of the revolution that is experiencing very high inflation, and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (18.16%). Housing Services also recorded inflation above the average, with a year-on-year rate of 17.41%.

Only the component of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco recorded a year-on-year inflation drop of 7.02%. However, the increase noted in April and the upward trend of the annual cumulative suggest that there will be further increases in the coming months, which will raise the overall CPI even more due to the influence of this component.

Another way to analyze the inflation dynamics in Cuba is presented in the following table, where the goal is to determine which components of the CPI accelerate price growth from January to April, and the results are as follows:

The first column presents the year-on-year inflation rate of the components of the CPI of Cuba in April, arranged from highest to lowest amount. It reflects the inflation rate that would be recorded if the year ended in April. The second column includes the same data for the previous month of January. The third column indicates whether there is an acceleration of inflation (+) or a deceleration (-) in this case.

There is only a decrease in inflation for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with -43.18 points, and to a lesser extent in health, with 0.43 points, respectively.

In the remaining nine components, there has been an acceleration of inflation, with significant differences among them.

The general CPI has increased by 2.21 points from January to April. The most significant rises, above the average, are again in Transportation with 16.17 points, an increase that will translate into higher prices in the coming months due to the impact of transportation costs on the overall economy. Interestingly, the second component experiencing the highest price acceleration is Furniture and household items, with 11.16 points, followed at a greater distance by Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 5.65 points, and Restaurants and hotels with 3.52 points.

The data confirms that by the end of the first quarter of 2026, inflation in Cuba remains high, increases significantly, and through the Transportation component, ensures future growth in other goods and services. This reinforces the assertion that the announced economic stabilization policy of the authorities is not working and is not yielding the desired results. Economists agree that controlling inflation is crucial for the Cuban economy to be able to implement policies that stimulate growth.