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The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal warned that the island's economy could experience a contraction of at least 15% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, in a scenario characterized by persistent inflation, a shortage of foreign currency, and an energy crisis that he considers incompatible with the current economic program of the regime.
The trigger for the analysis was the official data from the ONEI regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026: the cumulative variation of the consumer price index from January to March reached 7.18%, surpassing for the first time in 2026 the cumulative rate of the same period in 2025, which was 6.56%.
"Triggered Stagflation?: For the first time this year, the accumulated increase in consumer prices in Cuba (7.18%) is higher than the accumulated increase for the same period in 2025 (6.56%). Combined with the collapse of GDP, this would indicate uncontrollable stagflation," wrote Monreal in a thread of posts on X.
Stagflation describes a situation where the economy contracts while prices rise and wages lose value: Cubans produce less, pay more, and earn the same.
The expert notes that the potential decline in GDP in 2026, which could be at least 15%, would coincide with a significant surge in prices that, in addition to collapsing the economy and destroying social welfare, would hinder economic policy.
"If one thing seems clear as we enter the fifth month of 2026, it's the absolute irrelevance of the heralded '2026 Government Economic and Social Program.' It could be shelved without any practical consequence," he stated.
In his opinion, the situation could be even worse, given the little trust he has in the official government data on economic matters.
"A potential short-term macroeconomic stabilization in Cuba—where reducing inflation is a key indicator—is unfeasible without a redesign of the international integration scheme, which requires negotiations with the U.S.," she emphasized.
A GDP drop of 15% would match the worst year of the Special Period: 1993, when the Cuban economy contracted by 14.9%.
Monreal warns that the current crisis is more intractable than that of previous times, as it builds upon an unpayable external debt and the lack of structural reforms. The accumulated contraction since 2019 has already reached 23% according to independent estimates.
The CEPAL projects a decline of the Cuban GDP by 6.5% in 2026, the worst in Latin America, while The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates a contraction of 7.2%.
The Cuban expert believes that both projections fall short. The government itself had projected a growth of 1%, a figure that no independent organization supports.
Monreal has described the official economic program as "absolutely irrelevant" for failing to address the structural crisis: a fiscal deficit of 74.5 billion Cuban pesos, persistent inflation, and an energy crisis with no solution in sight.
Vice President Salvador Valdés Mesa himself admitted that "it is not possible to live on 6,000 pesos given the high prices," while the average salary hovers around that monthly figure - about 12 euros at the informal exchange rate - against an estimated cost of living between 25,000 and 50,000 pesos.
The energy crisis is worsening the situation. Cuba needs between 90,000 and 110,000 barrels of oil daily, but it only produces 40,000. The capture of Nicolás Maduro in January cut off the Venezuelan supply, and the only relief—a Russian shipment of 730,000 barrels that arrived in March—was already depleted by May. Blackouts exceed 24 consecutive hours in several provinces.
Monreal also incorporates a geopolitical dimension: Cuba's economic stabilization would largely depend on an agreement with Washington.
However, Díaz-Canel declared on April 22 that "if the United States does not agree to negotiate on Cuban terms, there will be no negotiation," while the regime faces new American sanctions imposed on May 1.
Cuba ranks last in the macroeconomic management index among 27 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean according to CEPAL, and the social deterioration accumulated since 2020 is unprecedented since the Special Period. Monreal warns that, without genuine structural reforms and an understanding with the United States, the regime's economic model has reached its limit.
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