Rubén Cortés, former director of the Mexican newspaper La Razón, does not see a military intervention in Cuba. He advocates for a negotiated exit. He defended this position on Monday in the CiberCuba program, Transición en Cuba. Less than 24 hours later, President Trump stated at the White House that he sees a diplomatic agreement with the Cuban regime as possible.
In his opinion, the most likely outcome for Cuba is a negotiated one, and he is among those who believe it is necessary to wait until November. He also added that if there are no changes on the Island, "Marco Rubio will continue to be Secretary of State." Another matter is María Elvira Salazar, he insisted.
Cortés also pointed out, in the interview with Tania Costa, that any sanction that disrupts the flow of remittances and shipments from Miami to Cuba will have a direct political cost for Cuban-American congressmen, especially for María Elvira Salazar, whose own constituents are the ones financially supporting their families on the Island.
"No let's not play with words: Venezuela no longer provides oxygen to Cuba. Tourism no longer provides oxygen to Cuba. Miami provides oxygen to Cuba," stated Cortés, who analyzed the role of Florida as the economic support for the dictatorship in the context of a broader discussion on the Iranian and Russian weaponry acquired by the Cuban regime.
The journalist described in detail the phenomenon observed at the airports: “Mountains and mountains of packages wrapped in blue nylon” that travelers bring on flights departing from Miami to Cuba.
On the subject, he added that there are people who make that trip twice a day carrying goods, and that cars are also sent from Miami on ships to the port of Mariel, in addition to solar panels, televisions, and medicines.
"The daily issues are being resolved from Miami. Not just the daily issues: there are cars, solar panels, televisions, a lot," Cortés emphasized, referring to the Cubans on the Island.
The journalist's main argument is that these “personal bags”—as a Cuban official called them to emphasize their non-commercial nature—“support millions of Cubans who don’t go out on the street because they have that personal bag,” and that the surplus is sold to those who do not have relatives in Miami, creating an informal market that sustains daily life on the Island.
This informal flow becomes even more relevant following the indefinite suspension of Western Union for transfers from the United States to Cuba in February 2025, after the Trump administration sanctioned Orbit S.A.
Formal remittances fell by 70% compared to 2019, from 3.716 billion dollars to 1.113 billion in 2024, but 93% of the money now flows through informal channels and remittances account for 8.3% of Cuba's GDP, with almost 70% of the population receiving them.
Cortés raised the underlying political contradiction: if sanctions are imposed that affect those who send "aspirin, coffee, and medicine to their grandma," those voters are unlikely to support pressure measures against Cuba.
"María Elvira (Salazar) is a politician who needs the votes of those Cubans who send a little coffee and medicine for their grandmother every day," the journalist pointed out.
He was more direct in assessing the electoral weight at stake. "The vote of María Elvira, the vote of Carlos Jiménez, the vote of Díaz-Balart... carries weight, matters in Washington. So you start to lose here, there."
The tension described by Cortés is real. Salazar issued a call this Tuesday to stop "everything", including "no more tourism, no more remittances" and "no more mechanisms that continue to finance and support the dictatorship," but her own constituents are the ones sending those remittances.
Cortés also pointed out that the Cuban vote in Miami is no longer homogeneous. "I don't see that Miami vote as organized. I don't see it in the streets saying 'a demonstration now, let it happen, let Cuba fall.' Everyone is in the stands drinking coffee, waiting to see what Marco Rubio does."
The journalist attributed that change to the transformation of the migration profile. "The historical ones are already dying off. I am 62 years old and I left Cuba in '95. So a lot changes, Cubans change a lot."
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