Political analyst Juan Antonio Blanco, president of Cuba Siglo XXI, stated in an interview with Tania Costa, on CiberCuba, that change on the Island will occur "before September" 2026, a prediction he made as a conclusion of a political analysis, not as speculation.
In response to the journalist's direct question—"Is it this year?"—Blanco replied straightforwardly: "Look, I always say: I am a political analyst, I am not an astrologer, I am not Willy Chirino, I am not a singer, but if you ask me as an analyst, I will say: yes, yes it is this year, and I would tell you that it will be before September."
The forecast is part of a broader thesis that Blanco has developed in various forums: Cuba is undergoing what he calls "the state’s war against the population," an unequal confrontation between an armed state and an unarmed, internet-disconnected, and hungry citizenry.
"It is almost irresponsible to ask a people that is unarmed, disconnected from the internet, hungry, and struggling for their daily needs, to also confront a regime that has shown no hesitation in trampling on anyone to maintain its grip on power over the past 67 years, using non-violent methods," declared the analyst.
Blanco also describes an "existential crisis of the Cuban nation" with tens of thousands of deaths that, according to him, are not counted as the responsibility of the State.
"Tens of thousands of people are dying. Those deaths are not counted as deaths by the Cuban state. They are not deaths caused by police violence, but they are deaths: deaths caused because there was no dipyrone at home to reduce the fever of a 5-year-old child."
Cuba Siglo XXI, the think tank chaired by Blanco and which was established in Miami in January 2023 with the declared goal of "deeply understanding the nature of the Cuban regime to address its transformation," published the report "Cuba 2025: Possibilities and Probabilities" in January 2025, co-written with Emilio Morales.
That report evaluated six indicators of governance—rule of law, socio-economic security, state efficiency, corruption, international relations, and political stability—and concluded that the totalitarian system had collapsed and that a regime change was possible in 2025.
Blanco is no stranger to predictions that later come to fruition. Tania Costa recalled during the interview that in a previous appearance on CiberCuba, the analyst had foreseen information about a possible surgical military intervention, which was later seen in Venezuela. When asked if he was still in contact with his sources, Blanco replied succinctly: "Every now and then, they tell me a few things in my ear."
The context surrounding the forecast is one of acute crisis: more than 860,000 Cubans arrived in the United States between 2021 and mid-2024, the largest exodus in the island's history, while the Real Instituto Elcano described that since the second half of 2024, Cuba entered the worst structural humanitarian crisis under the regime.
Upon bidding farewell to the analyst, Tania Costa left the door open for a future meeting: "I have so many more questions I want to ask you. Let's see if you can come back and we can continue discussing topics."
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