The political analyst Juan Antonio Blanco, president of Cuba Siglo XXI, stated in an interview with Tania Costa, in CiberCuba, that the change on the Island will occur "before September" 2026, a prediction he made as a conclusion from a political analysis, not as speculation.
In response to the journalist's direct question — "Is it this year?" — Blanco answered straightforwardly: "Look, I always say: I am a political analyst, I am not an astrologer, I am not Willy Chirino, I am not a singer, but if you ask me as an analyst, I would say: yes, it is this year, and I would tell you before September."
The forecast aligns with a broader thesis that Blanco has presented in various forums: Cuba is experiencing what he describes as "the state's war against the population," an uneven confrontation between an armed state and an unarmed citizenry that is disconnected from the internet and hungry.
"It is almost irresponsible to ask a people that is unarmed, disconnected from the internet, starving, and struggling for their daily survival to also confront, through non-violent methods, a machinery that has demonstrated over 67 years that it has no qualms about trampling anyone who stands in its way to remain in power," the analyst stated.
Blanco also describes an "existential crisis of the Cuban nation" with tens of thousands of deaths that, according to him, are not counted as the responsibility of the State.
"Tens of thousands of people are dying. Those deaths are not accounted for as deaths attributed to the Cuban state. They are not deaths caused by police violence, but they are deaths: deaths caused because there was no dipyrone at home to reduce the fever of a 5-year-old child."
Cuba Siglo XXI, the think tank led by Blanco, which was founded in Madrid in 2012 and established in Miami in January 2023 with the declared goal of "deeply understanding the nature of the Cuban regime to address its transformation," published the report "Cuba 2025: Possibilities and Probabilities" in January 2025, co-authored with Emilio Morales.
This report assessed six indicators of governance —rule of law, socio-economic security, state efficiency, corruption, international relations, and political stability— and concluded that the totalitarian system had collapsed and that a regime change was possible in 2025.
Blanco is not unfamiliar with predictions that later come to fruition. Tania Costa recalled during the interview that in a previous appearance on CiberCuba, the analyst had anticipated information about a possible surgical military intervention, which was later observed in Venezuela. When asked if he was still in contact with his sources, Blanco succinctly replied, "Once in a while, they whisper a few things in my ear."
The context surrounding the forecast is one of acute crisis: over 860,000 Cubans arrived in the United States between 2021 and mid-2024, marking the largest exodus in the island's history, while the Real Instituto Elcano noted that from the second half of 2024, Cuba entered the worst structural humanitarian crisis under the regime.
When saying goodbye to the analyst, Tania Costa left the door open for a new meeting: "I feel like I have a thousand more questions for you. Let's see if you can come back and we can continue discussing topics."
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