An opinion piece published in the Spanish outlet The Objective argues that the tightening of U.S. policy towards Cuba could accelerate profound changes on the island, and proposes three possible scenarios for the regime in Havana.
The text, signed by analyst Efraín Vázquez Vera, argues that the strategy of the Trump administration has shifted "from economic suffocation to the threat of direct military intervention."
In his view, this pressure is not rhetorical but a political imperative ahead of the U.S. elections in November 2026.
What are the three possible scenarios according to Vázquez Vera?
The first scenario for the Cuban regime consists of maintaining an unyielding firmness to buy time until the U.S. elections. Vázquez Vera describes it as "high risk" because it underestimates the frustration of Washington and increases the possibility of a strategic attack.
The second scenario implies a breakdown in dialogue with the United States and entrenchment, but if this happens, it would be a "fatal miscalculation."
"The breakdown of dialogue in Havana would provide Washington with the perfect pretext to carry out its threats," he writes.
The third possibility considers meeting most of the U.S. demands while preserving the core of Cuban sovereignty in exchange for lifting the embargo.
This would imply deep transformations in the country, starting with the immediate release of opponents and a genuine economic opening in Cuba.
The analyst perceives in the Cuban Government's willingness to "listen" to the offer of 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid from the U.S. a sign that the regime is already on this path.
The effect of Washington's policies
Vázquez Vera highlights the tightening of measures by Washington as a tactical response and links it to a "strategic setback in Iran," asserting that the Trump administration would need a victory in its "backyard" to maintain its political capital.
In addition, he supports his thesis on the possible scenarios for Cuba with a series of recent events. The most striking is the departure of Meliá, which this week announced the immediate termination of the management of 15 Cuban hotels due to the risk of secondary sanctions from Washington for operating with facilities linked to GAESA.
Days earlier, Iberostar also announced its withdrawal from 12 hotels in Cuba under similar pressure. The analyst describes these withdrawals by Spanish companies as "the final link in a prolonged drip of corporate retreats."
Additionally, it notes that the United States, with this strategy, has dismantled the "historical cushion of Spanish investment" on the island.
Another central fact cited by the author is the formal indictment of Raúl Castro by the U.S. Department of Justice, made public on May 20 by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in Miami. The charges include seven federal counts related to the downing of the Hermanos al Rescate planes on February 24, 1996.
Vázquez Vera interprets this maneuver as an attempt to "symbolically decapitate the historical leadership and fracture the internal cohesion of the regime."
To all of this is added, as a backdrop, an unprecedented energy crisis and an increase in citizen protests and the government's repressive actions on the island.
The article concludes with a thesis that the author himself acknowledges as paradoxical: "The only way to avoid war is through pragmatic concession, a decision that would irreversibly initiate Cuba's economic and political transition."
However, many Cubans both on the island and abroad assert that the country is already at war, even though there has not yet been any American landing.
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