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An opinion article published in the Spanish medium The Objective argues that the tightening of U.S. policy toward Cuba could accelerate profound changes on the island, and proposes three possible scenarios for the regime in Havana.
The text, signed by analyst Efraín Vázquez Vera, argues that the strategy of the Trump administration has shifted "from economic suffocation to the threat of direct military intervention."
In their view, this pressure is not rhetorical but a political imperative in light of the upcoming U.S. elections in November 2026.
What are the three possible scenarios according to Vázquez Vera?
The first scenario for the Cuban regime involves maintaining an unyielding firmness to buy time until the U.S. elections. Vázquez Vera describes it as "high risk" because it underestimates Washington's frustration and increases the likelihood of a strategic strike.
The second scenario involves breaking off dialogue with the United States and entrenchment, but if this happens it would be a "fatal miscalculation."
"The breakdown of dialogue in Havana would provide Washington with the perfect pretext to carry out its threats," he writes.
The third possibility involves meeting most of the U.S. demands while preserving the core of Cuban sovereignty in exchange for lifting the embargo.
This would imply profound transformations in the country, beginning with the immediate release of dissidents and a genuine economic opening in Cuba.
The analyst sees the Cuban Government's willingness to "listen" to the offer of 100 million dollars in humanitarian aid from the U.S. as a sign that the regime is already on this path.
The effect of Washington's policies
Vázquez Vera views the tightening of measures by Washington as a tactical response and associates it with a "strategic setback in Iran," asserting that the Trump administration would need a victory in its "backyard" to maintain its political capital.
Furthermore, he supports his thesis on the possible scenarios for Cuba with a series of recent events. The most noteworthy is the departure of Meliá, which this week announced the immediate cessation of management of 15 Cuban hotels due to the risk of secondary sanctions from Washington for operating with facilities linked to GAESA.
Days before, Iberostar also announced its withdrawal from 12 hotels in Cuba under the same pressure. The analyst describes these exits of Spanish companies as "the last link in a prolonged stream of corporate retractions."
Additionally, it notes that with this strategy, the United States has dismantled the "historical cushion of Spanish investment" in the island.
Another central fact cited by the author is the formal indictment of Raúl Castro by the U.S. Department of Justice, made public on May 20 by acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in Miami. The charges include seven federal counts related to the shooting down of the planes from Brothers to the Rescue on February 24, 1996.
Vázquez Vera interprets this maneuver as an attempt to "symbolically decapitate the historical leadership and fracture the internal cohesion of the regime."
All of this is set against the backdrop of an unprecedented energy crisis and an increase in citizen protests and government repressive actions on the island.
The article concludes with a thesis that the author acknowledges as paradoxical: "The only way to avoid war is through pragmatic concession, a decision that would irreversibly initiate Cuba's economic and political transition."
However, many Cubans, both inside and outside the island, claim that the country is already at war, despite there being no American landing so far.
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