The journalist, researcher, and former Cuban political prisoner Rolando Cartaya made a strong prediction at the end of an interview with Tania Costa on CiberCuba: the liberation of Cuba will happen before September 2026.
"I couldn’t give you a specific month, but I believe it will be before September; it will be before September, it will be while there is still warmth," stated Cartaya, who has been associated for years with the Fundación para los Derechos Humanos en Cuba (FDHC) as a researcher, project director, and spokesperson for the Cuban Observatory of Conflicts (OCC).
The phrase with which he concluded his remarks captured the tone of the conversation: "In the heat of summer. We are going to simmer liberation slowly."
The prediction is based on a context of unprecedented social fervor. The OCC documented 1,311 protests, complaints, and critical expressions in Cuba during May 2026, a figure that is close to the historic record of 1,333 registered in December 2025.
"Since August of last year, the number of protests, complaints, and critical expressions has never decreased," Cartaya noted, with the only exception being January 2026, when 957 were recorded.
Of the 1,311 protests in May, 527 were classified as "challenges to the police state", accounting for more than a third of the monthly total.
"527, which is an extraordinary number. It's more than a third of all protests," emphasized the researcher.
46 in-person protests on the street were also recorded, the second highest number documented by the OCC, surpassed only by the 52 in March 2026, a month that experienced three nationwide blackouts.
Cartaya identified the blackouts—lasting between 20 and 24 hours a day—as the main trigger for civic mobilization: "Cubans are facing a multisystem humanitarian crisis. That is to say, it's about food, housing, health, and even public safety. But what completely destabilizes their lives are the blackouts."
The capital holds the most tension. "Havana, for me, is the social powder keg of Cuba," said Cartaya, referring to the protests that have spread through neighborhoods such as Santos Suárez, Marianao, Luyanó, Playa, Vedado, Centro Habana, Cayo Hueso, Boyeros, and Regla.
At least 14 people were arrested in Havana for protests related to blackouts between March and May 2026.
In April, the OCC had recorded 1,133 protests, a 29.5% increase compared to April 2025, which confirms the upward trend of popular mobilization.
Cartaya also warned about the risk that this accumulated pressure poses to the regime: "I believe this is what could lead the government to lose control in the face of the social unrest we are experiencing in Cuba."
The host Tania Costa concluded the program by acknowledging the weight of her guest's words: "He has also given us some good headlines," she said, referring directly to the prediction about the release before September.
Filed under: