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The dollar reached 670 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market this Monday, but signs indicate that the rise is far from over. According to the analytical tools of elTOQUE Markets, traders are already forecasting a new increase that could push the U.S. currency to 700 CUP in the short term.
The histogram published this Monday by the platform—part of its new financial intelligence service launched on June 11—places the market median at 670 CUP, with the highest concentration of offers between 670 and 675 pesos. However, the distribution extends to values nearing 710 CUP, reflecting expectations of further increases.
"Everything indicates that the dollar and other currencies will continue to rise against the Cuban peso in the short term," stated elTOQUE in releasing the analysis.
The explanation is simple: there are still more Cubans looking to buy dollars than those willing to sell them.
"For the CUP to recover, there would need to be many more people selling dollars than buying them. That is not happening," the platform specified.
During the week from June 7 to June 14, the market maintained a balance between buyers and sellers, with no excess supply appearing that could halt the depreciation of the national currency. The buying and selling curves remained stable, a sign that, according to the analysis, supports the continuation of the upward trend.
The speed at which the peso is deteriorating has even surprised analysts. At the beginning of June, the Currency and Finance Observatory of elTOQUE projected that the dollar could close the month around 650 CUP. However, that barrier was surpassed on June 12, almost three weeks before the end of the month.
In just fifteen days, the dollar has risen from 585 to 670 pesos, an increase of 85 CUP, equivalent to over 14%. The climb has been practically constant: it started June at 585 CUP, reached 600 on the 3rd, hit 625 on the 8th, touched 650 on the 12th, rose to 660 on Sunday, and this Monday marked a new record of 670 CUP.
The pressure is not limited to the dollar. The euro also reached a historic high of 770 CUP, while the freely convertible currency (MLC) jumped by 70 pesos in a single day, surpassing the 500 CUP mark for the first time, trading at 510.
Behind this currency crisis lie structural problems that continue to worsen. The shortage of foreign currency, the collapse of tourism, the energy crisis, and the expansion of the money supply without productive backing continue to undermine confidence in the Cuban peso.
Between January and April of this year, Cuba received only 328,608 international visitors, a decrease of 55.8% compared to the same period in 2025. At the same time, the country is facing a severe electricity crisis that recorded deficits exceeding 2,100 megawatts during May.
The magnitude of the decline becomes evident when observing the evolution of the national currency in recent years. Since 2020, the Cuban peso has lost over 95% of its value against the dollar in the informal market, dropping from around 42 CUP per dollar to the current 670.
Cuban economist Elías Amor recently warned that if the current economic imbalances persist, the U.S. dollar could even approach 1,000 pesos.
"Those who exchange currency say no, I won't do it at 600, at 700, and the following week at 800, and so on, because in the coming months, no foreign currency will enter Cuba," warned the specialist.
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