The economist Elías Amor issued a warning this week that shook the followers of his program with Tania Costa: the exchange rate of the dollar in Cuba could approach 1,000 Cuban pesos per unit, a level that seems unimaginable even today.
"The most likely outcome is that the change will approach 1 per thousand," said Amor during the program that analyzed the situation of the informal currency market on the island.
The warning comes when the dollar is already trading at 600 pesos in Havana and 580 pesos in Las Tunas, according to data shared by viewers during the program itself. The euro, for its part, reaches 650 pesos in the informal market, according to the same sources.
The dollar reached a new historic high, hitting 600 pesos last Tuesday, in a surge that has been virtually uninterrupted over the past few weeks: from 548 pesos on May 17, it rose to 580 on May 31, to 585 on June 1, to 595 on June 2, and to 600 on June 3.
Amor explained the reasoning behind his forecast with a straightforward statement: "The problem is that there are fewer foreign currencies and more needs, and since needs can be met with foreign currencies, people will be willing to pay whatever it takes for the currency."
The economist described the dynamics of the informal market as an unstoppable escalation. "Those exchanging currencies say no, I won't do it at 600, then at 700, and the following week at 800, and so on, because in the coming months no foreign currency will enter Cuba."
One of the factors that exacerbates the shortage is the reduction of international flights to the island, which complicates the entry of remittances and cash. Additionally, there is the collapse of Cuban tourism, which fell by 55.8% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year, with hotel occupancy rates not exceeding 10%.
Amor did not hold back in describing the system that forces Cubans to earn in pesos and buy in foreign currency. "They receive salaries and pensions in Cuban pesos and then have to buy products in foreign currency. That is the most absurd thing that can happen in a country's economy. It is absurd, it has no justification whatsoever. It is an economic aberration, and yet it is imposed on the population."
During the program, a listener identified as Loida de la Torre from Majibacoa (Las Tunas) sent a message that summarized the daily struggle of millions of Cubans: "Since yesterday at noon, there has been no electricity. It is now 12:31 PM, and we have been without power for 24 and a half hours. We can't take it anymore."
Another listener, Leticia, expressed her conviction that "change is brewing," although she warned that "it will not align with most of our wishes."
Regarding the political scenario, Amor defended the model of consensus negotiation and expressed optimism about Washington's strategy. "I believe this is what the United States government is doing. It seems to me that they are acting in good faith, and they are doing it very well; they are taking steps that are very focused on achieving the objective of changing Cuba."
The economist concluded with a forward-looking statement: "Well, let's give them a vote of confidence; let's wait and see what happens because we have a very clear outlook in November."
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