The dollar reached this Thursday 690 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the island's informal market, according to real-time data from elTOQUE, after starting the day at 685 CUP.
The 700 peso barrier is within reach: if the recent pace continues, it could be crossed this weekend.
The rise in June is unprecedented in recent times. The dollar started the month at 585 CUP and in just 18 days has accumulated an increase of over 100 pesos, a depreciation exceeding 17%.
The Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi) of elTOQUE had projected a ceiling of 650 CUP for the entire month of June; that barrier was surpassed on the 12th, 18 days ahead of schedule.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The euro also closed higher: 785 CUP, ten pesos more than at the start of the day.
The freely convertible currency (MLC) remains at 500 CUP for the second consecutive day, although elTOQUE marks it with a warning icon indicating unverified or out-of-market data.
The gap with the official rate of the Central Bank of Cuba, which sets the dollar at 555 CUP, is widening continuously: those who buy foreign currency on the informal market pay 135 pesos more than what the State acknowledges, making imported goods more expensive and deepening the inequality between those who have access to foreign currency and those who rely solely on the peso.
The surge coincides with an announcement that, far from calming the markets, could further fuel inflation.
The Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz presented this Thursday, before the Third Extraordinary Session of the National Assembly of People's Power, the increase of the minimum wage to 3,210 pesos, a 53% rise compared to the 2,100 pesos that have been in effect since January 2021.
The problem is that this new minimum is equivalent to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate, and studies estimate that covering basic needs requires about 96,000 pesos per month, compared to an average state salary of only 6,930 CUP.
Economists warn that a wage increase without productive backing, financed through money issuance, could act as an accelerator of inflation and further pressure the informal exchange rate upwards.
The economist Elías Amor summed it up bluntly: "Those who exchange currency say no, I won't do it at 600, at 700, and the following week at 800."
Amor was also categorical about the immediate horizon: "No foreign currency will enter Cuba in the coming months," and warned that "it is most likely that the exchange rate will approach 1 per thousand," referring to a rate close to 1,000 CUP per dollar.
The structural background explains the extent of the deterioration. In 2020, the dollar was trading at about 42 CUP in the informal market; this Thursday it stands at 690 CUP, which represents a loss of more than 95% of the value of the Cuban peso in six years. The average year-on-year depreciation between January and April 2026 was 45%, more than double that of the entire year of 2025.
This is compounded by the collapse of tourism, the country's main source of foreign currency: between January and May 2026, only 359,491 international visitors arrived, a decrease of 58.4% compared to the same period in 2025, with a hotel occupancy rate of 12.9% in the first quarter.
Vice President Salvador Valdés Mesa himself acknowledged in May that with 6,000 CUP "one cannot live" due to high prices, an admission that reveals the magnitude of the crisis that the regime has failed to contain despite six decades of unsuccessful economic management.
The OMFi warned that "increased economic isolation could result in more restrictions on the entry of foreign currency, reduced availability of imported goods, and an additional increase in inflationary pressures," a perspective that the data from this Thursday confirms accurately.
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