Sandro Castro, grandson of Fidel Castro and Cuban influencer, posted a story on Instagram this Saturday, in which he predicted that the dollar will drop or stabilize around 700 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market, thanks to the package of 176 economic measures announced by the regime.
The forecast comes at a time of significant devaluation of the national currency. The dollar has risen from 585 CUP at the beginning of June to 695 CUP this Saturday at 11:00 AM, an increase of 110 CUP in just twenty days. The euro is trading at 795 CUP and the MLC at 505 CUP in the informal market.
In his statement, Sandro Castro addressed El Toque —the platform that daily publishes the informal exchange rate and which he refers to as "the villain"— to warn that its days of rising are numbered.
"I believe that now that there are measures in place, and you know that these measures lead to foreign investment, as well as the entry of international banks, you’re going to play the game of staying in the dark and then you’ll drop a little because you didn’t have any measures to rely on, but now you do," he stated.
The influencer was more specific in his forecast and set a ceiling for the greenback in the informal market of the island.
"I already know that you're going to lower it a bit or make the dollar pause at 700 CUP because you won't rely on the salary increase or anything like that, since a big influx of money will come from abroad. So, nothing, I'll be keeping an eye on El Toque."
According to his reasoning, the key will not lie in domestic wages but rather in the influx of foreign capital that, in his view, the new measures will make possible.
The announced package includes the authorization of private banking for the first time since 1959, private currency exchange, currency auctions, and a real-time digital exchange market, as well as greater openness to foreign investment.
Sandro Castro has been in a public feud with El Toque for months. In October 2025, he blamed that platform for the rise of the dollar and called on entrepreneurs and small businesses to organize themselves to stop the increase.
In November of that year, he accused the platform of making "100 million dollars" in a single day by manipulating the currency market.
In December 2025, when the Central Bank announced a new floating rate scheme, he celebrated the measure with a "we did it" referring to his previous campaigns. However, he did not achieve anything because the price of the dollar has continued to rise in the Cuban black market.
Now, with the new package of economic measures, Sandro Castro is back at it, presenting a specific forecast and a grand dream: "The money from abroad will be substantial."
Not everyone shares their optimism. The United States Government described the regime's reforms as "superficial smoke signals".
Additionally, the implementation of the economic measures package will require modifying more than 148 legal provisions and approving 32 new regulations, a process that could take several months.
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