Sandro Castro, grandson of Fidel Castro and Cuban influencer, published a story on Instagram this Saturday in which he predicted that the dollar will decrease or stabilize around 700 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market, thanks to the package of 176 economic measures announced by the regime.
The forecast arrives at a time of significant devaluation of the national currency. The dollar rose from 585 CUP at the beginning of June to 695 CUP this Saturday at 11:00 AM, an increase of 110 CUP in just twenty days. The euro is trading at 795 CUP and the MLC at 505 CUP in the informal market.
In his statement, Sandro Castro addressed El Toque —the platform that publishes the informal exchange rate daily and which he refers to as "the villain"— to warn that its days of increase are numbered.
"I believe that now that there are measures in place, and you know that these measures lead to foreign investment, and that international banks are also coming in, you're going to play the game of going dark for a bit, but then you're going to come down a little because you didn't have any measures to rely on, but now you do," he stated.
The influencer was more specific in his forecast and set a ceiling for the greenbacks in the island's informal market.
"I already know that you're going to lower it a bit or make the dollar pause at 700 CUP because you won't lean on the salary increase or anything like that, as big money will come in from abroad. So, nothing, I will be keeping an eye on you El Toque."
According to his reasoning, the key will not lie in internal salaries but in the influx of foreign capital, which he believes the new measures will make possible.
The announced package includes the authorization of private banking for the first time since 1959, private currency exchange houses, currency auctions, and a real-time digital currency market, along with greater openness to foreign investment.
Sandro Castro has been publicly at war with El Toque for months. In October 2025, he blamed that platform for the rise of the dollar and called on entrepreneurs and small and medium-sized enterprises to organize to stop the increase.
In November of that year, he accused the platform of making "100 million dollars" in a single day by manipulating the currency market.
In December 2025, when the Central Bank announced a new floating rate scheme, he celebrated the measure with a "we did it" referring to his previous campaigns. However, he achieved nothing because the price of the dollar has continued to rise in the Cuban black market.
Now, with the new economic measures package, Sandro Castro is back with a concrete forecast and a big dream: "the money from abroad will be substantial."
Not everyone shares their optimism. The United States Government described the regime's reforms as "superficial smoke signals".
In addition, the implementation of the economic measures package will require modifying more than 148 legal provisions and approving 32 new regulations, a process that could take several months.
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