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Two matchdays have been enough to define the landscape of the : Canada and Switzerland have already secured their tickets to the knockout stage, Bosnia and Herzegovina is in a precarious situation, and Qatar has been mathematically eliminated.
What the first two days left behind
The inaugural match, held between June 12 and 13, left no doubts. Canada and Bosnia shared the points in Toronto with a 1-1 draw, where Jovo Lukic put the Balkans ahead in the 21st minute and Cyle Larin equalized in the 78th minute. That same weekend, Switzerland took the lead against Qatar thanks to a penalty by Breel Embolo, but Boualem Khoukhi equalized with a header in injury time. Four teams, four points shared, everything is still wide open.
The second matchday, on June 18, changed everything all at once. Canada crushed Qatar 6-0 at BC Place (Vancouver) to achieve its first victory in history in a men's World Cup. Jonathan David recorded the first Canadian hat-trick in a World Cup, Larin scored at the 15th minute, Nathan Saliba at the 64th, and an own goal by Mohamed Al-Mannai completed the scoreline.
In parallel, Switzerland defeated Bosnia 4-1 at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood in a match that was decided with Bosnia reduced to ten players starting from the 80th minute. Five of the six goals in the match came after the 74th minute: Johan Manzambi scored a brace (74' and 90'), Rubén Vargas netted the third (84'), and Granit Xhaka sealed the score from the penalty spot in the 96th minute. Ermin Mahmic pulled one back for the Balkans in the 93rd minute, but the damage was already done.
The standings after two rounds
PosEquipoPJPtsDG| 1 | Canadá | 2 | 4 | +6 |
| 2 | Suiza | 2 | 4 | +3 |
| 3 | Bosnia y Herzegovina | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| 4 | Catar | 2 | 1 | -6 |
Canada and Switzerland are tied on points, but the goal difference separates the host (+6 vs. +3). Both have qualified. Bosnia and Qatar share points, but Qatar's goal difference (-6) makes it impossible for them to surpass Bosnia in any scenario.
The scenarios of matchday 3
On Wednesday, June 24, at 3:00 PM Cuba time (7:00 PM UTC), the four teams will play simultaneously: Switzerland vs Canada at BC Place (Vancouver) and Bosnia vs Qatar at Lumen Field (Seattle). Simultaneity is the standard format of FIFA to prevent agreements.
Canada and Switzerland are competing for the lead. If Canada wins, they finish in first place; if Switzerland wins, they take the top spot. A tie benefits Canada due to their superior current goal difference.
Bosnia needs to win against Qatar to secure its spot as the best third-place team and improve its goal difference in the competition with the other eleven third-place teams in the tournament. In the 2026 World Cup, the eight best third-place teams from the 12 groups will advance to the Round of 16, and goal difference is one of the tiebreaker criteria among them. A draw or a loss would leave Bosnia in a very vulnerable position.
Qatar is out of the competition and will only play for pride.
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