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United States already has the ticket in its pocket, although the last date promises real tension: Paraguay and Australia are playing for the future, and the group standings are still not finalized.
What the first two days left behind
The group kicked off with a resounding victory: the United States crushed Paraguay 4-1 on June 12 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with a brace from Folarin Balogun (31' and 45'+5'), an own goal by Bobadilla in the seventh minute, and a finish from Giovanni Reyna in stoppage time.
The surprise came two days later when Australia beat Turkey 2-0 in Vancouver with only 28% possession. Goals from Nestory Irankunda (27') and Connor Metcalfe (75') left the Turks without any arguments despite dominating the ball.
The second matchday confirmed the hierarchy. The United States defeated Australia 2-0 in Seattle —without Christian Pulisic in the starting lineup— with an own goal by Cameron Burgess in the 11th minute and a header by Alex Freeman in the 43', confirmed by VAR. On the same day, Paraguay secured three vital points against Turkey with a goal from Matías Galarza, playing with a numerical disadvantage after the expulsion of Miguel Almirón.
The standings after two rounds
PosEquipoPJPtsDG| 1 | Estados Unidos | 2 | 6 | +5 |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | 3 | -2 |
| 4 | Turquía | 2 | 0 | -3 |
Turkey has been mathematically eliminated. The others still have chances, although with varying margins.
The scenarios for matchday 3
The four teams will compete simultaneously on Thursday, June 26 at 10:00 PM Cuba time: Paraguay vs Australia at Levi's Stadium (San Francisco) and Turkey vs United States at SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles). The simultaneous format is the FIFA standard to prevent collusion.
United States comes first with six points and a goal difference of +5. They are already qualified; they just need to decide whether they will finish in first or second place.
Australia also has a nearly guaranteed spot with three points and a neutral goal difference. A victory against Paraguay secures the top position; a loss would leave them in second or even third place if the numbers don’t support them.
Paraguay is the team with the most at stake. They have three points but a goal difference of -2, which is a disadvantage. If they win against Australia, they will reach six points and could finish first or second depending on the outcome of the United States' match. If they draw, they will remain at four points and likely finish third, depending on the best third place teams rankings: from the 12 groups in the tournament, only the eight best third place teams advance to the Round of 16, with tiebreakers based on points, goal difference, goals for, fair play, and FIFA ranking. With a goal difference of -2, Paraguay needs to win and improve their numbers.
Turkey has nothing mathematical to defend, but it could influence the group's leadership if it achieves something against the host.
The final round of Group D has a clear protagonist: Paraguay needs to win to avoid depending on the outcomes of other groups.
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