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Two matchdays have been enough to almost finalize : Brazil and Morocco have all the chances to advance directly to the Round of 16, Scotland survives as the current best third-place team, and Haiti has been mathematically eliminated.
What the first two days left behind
The group kicked off on June 13 with an immediate surprise: Brazil was unable to overcome Morocco, and the match at MetLife Stadium ended in a 1-1 draw. Ismael Saibari opened the scoring in the 21st minute, and Vinícius Júnior equalized in the 32nd. On the same day, Scotland achieved the first victory of the group by defeating Haiti 1-0 at Gillette Stadium with a goal from John McGinn in the 28th minute.
The second matchday rearranged everything. On Friday the 19th, Morocco crushed Scotland with a goal from Saibari just 71 seconds in —assisted by Brahim Díaz— and took the lead. The following day, Brazil responded assertively: Matheus Cunha scored a brace (in minutes 23 and 36) and Vinícius sealed the 3-0 victory against Haiti just before halftime.
The standings after two rounds
PosEquipoPtsDG| 1 | Brasil | 4 | +3 |
| 2 | Marruecos | 4 | +1 |
| 3 | Escocia | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | Haití | 0 | -4 |
Brazil and Morocco share points, but the goal difference sets the South American team apart (+3 versus +1). Scotland, with three points, occupies one of the eight spots for the best third-place teams available among the 12 groups in the tournament.
The scenarios of matchday 3
On Wednesday, June 24 at 18:00 Cuba time, two simultaneous matches will take place to conclude the group: Morocco vs. Haiti at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and Scotland vs. Brazil at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Simultaneity is FIFA's standard format to prevent collusion between teams.
Brazil arrives qualified and holding the lead thanks to its superior goal difference. If it draws or wins against Scotland, it will finish first. Only a loss combined with a significant Moroccan victory could take away the top spot.
Morocco is also qualified and needs to win against Haiti—an easy task on paper—and hope that Brazil does not win in Miami to take the lead. With a goal difference of +1 compared to Brazil's +3, the Moroccans would need to win by a large margin and rely on a misstep from the Canarinha.
Scotland is the team with the most at stake. With three points and a neutral goal difference, a victory against Brazil would bring it to six points and put it in a position to contest for the top spot in the group. A draw would maintain its position as the best third-placed team, although with uncertainty about the outcomes in other groups. A loss would leave it vulnerable: three points may not be enough if other third-placed teams accumulate more.
Haiti has nothing to contest in the standings, but it does have the honor of concluding its World Cup participation without suffering another defeat that would further worsen its goal difference of -4.
The Scotland-Brazil match, with the Scots needing a positive result against the group favorite, promises to be the most open and intense game of the final day.
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