The Cuban dictatorship has been perfecting a tactic for over six decades that has allowed it to survive 13 U.S. presidents. Its strategy consists of making concessions, opening up spaces, buying time, and when the leader changes or weakens, returning to its original position. This is asserted by Carlos Sánchez Berzain, a lawyer, Bolivian political scientist, and director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy, in an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba.
"The Cuban dictatorship has been skilled in manipulating space and time for its indefinite permanence. It has managed, deceived, and maneuvered 13 presidents of the United States from Eisenhower to Biden, including Trump 45," stated Sánchez Berzain.
The most extreme case of this tactic, according to the analyst, was that of Barack Obama, who restored diplomatic relations with Havana, offered economic support with the mediation of Pope Francis, and initiated a normalization process that the U.S. government itselfdescribed ten years later as a "missed opportunity".
"And what did that serve for? For the regime to steal more? For it to exercise more state terrorism? For the number of political prisoners to increase? And for the criminal system to be reinforced? It served no purpose," Sánchez Berzain declared.
In light of that history, the analyst asserts that the Trump administration has a different perspective and views Cuba as "the head of the snake."
"If Cuba had not existed as a dictatorship, Chávez would not have had anyone to support. The entire criminal methodology of transforming Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador into dictatorships; all the penetration, the liquidation of sovereignty, the international interventionism, is Castro's Cuban methodology," he argues.
For that reason, Sánchez Berzain believes that Washington cannot afford to let the Cuban regime survive. "They cannot allow that dictatorship to endure because it will regenerate afterwards. They need to end it now, in the coming days, in the coming weeks. It is in a terminal state, and the United States knows it."
This pressure correlates with concrete facts. The Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against Cuba since January 2025, intercepted at least seven oil tankers —reducing crude oil imports by between 80% and 90%— and forced the exit of hotel chains like Meliá from 15 hotels on the island ahead of the June 5 deadline.
The debate over whether Trump could negotiate with the regime on migration issues—given that Cuban emigration is massive and Washington seeks to reduce it—receives a categorical response from Sánchez Berzain.
"The only agreement with the dictatorship is for it to leave. If the United States accepts another agreement, that is not an agreement; it is a deception. It is a way to buy time in exchange for giving up space," he warns.
The analyst acknowledges that this pattern has already been repeated during 13 consecutive presidencies and expresses hope that it will not happen with the current one. "Trump 47 is not going to enter the hall of the Cuban regime to become the fourteenth president that Cuba has manipulated."
"And this has already happened during 13 presidents, and I hope it doesn't happen with Trump 47," concludes Sánchez Berzain, leaving open the question that defines this historical moment: whether the dictatorship will once again manage to buy enough time to survive.
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