Ricardo Zúñiga, former senior advisor for the Western Hemisphere during the Barack Obama administration and one of the architects of the diplomatic thaw between Washington and Havana in 2014, issued a stern warning about the immediate future of bilateral relations.
According to the former U.S. diplomat, it is very likely that the United States will resort to military action against Cuba if the current channels of communication are completely shut down due to a lack of results.
The warning was made during an interview with journalist Gloria Ordaz on the program Encuentro Virtual, from Telemundo 51, at a time of heightened tension as Washington tightens its sanctions against the regime and bilateral contacts yield no visible results.
The danger of frustration in Washington
Zúñiga did not mince words when describing the scenario he envisions if diplomacy fails.
"Looking at the situation as it stands right now, my fear is that there will be frustration on the part of the United States due to the lack of what they see as progress in the discussions and they may decide to resort to military action," he explained directly.
The former White House advisor clarified that this scenario would not involve the deployment of troops on the ground, although he does not see it as the ideal solution for the crisis on the island.
"It would not be an invasion; it is clear that it would be an airstrike," he detailed, after which he concluded with the most emphatic statement of the interview: "Yes, it is possible, and I believe it is likely that it will end this way."
However, the former diplomat acknowledged the limitations of an operation of such magnitude, admitting that a bombing "would not be the definitive solution" either, as it alone would not guarantee a political change or a stable democratic transition.
Zúñiga emphasized that this evaluation is strictly personal and does not reflect any official position.
However, his words carry an undeniable weight coming from a negotiator who spent months secretly conversing with the Cuban regime and is intimately familiar with the mechanisms of its leadership.
"They now have what it takes to convince": The time to use leverage
According to the former official, the strategy of the Donald Trump administration to continue suffocating the Cuban economy indefinitely has reached its limit of usefulness and now runs the risk of becoming counterproductive for the citizens themselves.
"For me, we have reached a point where one must analyze the cost of continuing to suffocate the Cuban economy and, above all, the Cuban population," he reflected.
Zúñiga argued that Washington has already accumulated enough political and economic pressure to compel a real negotiation with Havana, so the approach should shift towards direct diplomacy.
"If the government of President Trump needs leverage, it already has it, they already have what they need to convince.", he asserted.
As evidence that the White House's blockade has been effective, it was revealed that Cuban authorities "have announced, but not followed through on, issues they had previously refused to discuss," which demonstrates that the current pressure has worked to create cracks in the regime's historical intransigence.
That accumulated pressure includes more than 240 sanctions imposed since January 2026 and the expiration on June 5 of the deadline for foreign corporations to sever ties with GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls between 40% and 70% of the island's economy.
The myth of Raúl Castro's grandson and the "consortium of power"
In analyzing the internal structure that supports the regime during this time of extreme crisis, Zúñiga addressed the real underlying concerns of what the olive green elite fears.
The former diplomat indicated that the greatest fear of the leadership is not the country's financial collapse, but rather the loss of absolute political control and the personal consequences that follow: being exposed to losing their lives or ending up in a federal prison in the United States.
When questioned about who truly pulls the strings of the country and the emerging role of figures like Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed "El Cangrejo," Zúñiga was unequivocal in debunking his influence.
"Does he have power in Cuba? No, he doesn't have power in Cuba," he asserted firmly.
Instead, he described the island's command system not as a personal fiefdom, but as a collective corporate structure.
"In Cuba, there is a consortium of power", he explained, pointing out that decision-making falls to a multifactorial alliance composed of the Armed Forces (FAR), the Ministry of the Interior (MININT), and the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC).
For this reason, Obama's former advisor dismissed the feasibility of seeking a single interlocutor in the current landscape.
Any serious negotiation with Washington would need to be conducted by a collective delegation representing these three branches of the state apparatus, which are "the ones who are truly in control."
This warning aligns with the context of June, when Pete Hegseth confirmed that military options against the island, including the capture or elimination of Díaz-Canel, remain on the table at the White House.
Alejandro Castro Espín: The "super orthodox" negotiator
Zúñiga took the opportunity to declassify details about the nature of the secret conversations they held in 2014.
It was revealed that at that time, the representative sent by Havana to lead the Cuban delegation was Colonel Alejandro Castro Espín, son of Raúl Castro.
In describing him, the former diplomat did not hold back in his remarks about his ideological rigidity.
"We talked to him; he was a very orthodox person, with training from Fidel Castro's government and a worldview that we never shared and were never going to share," he pointed out.
Ironically, both Castro Espín and his wife are currently sanctioned by the United States government as official channels are being closed again.
A crisis much worse than in 2016
Finally, Zúñiga contrasted the current reality of the island with the situation that existed at the end of Obama's term, concluding that Cuba is currently in a position of extreme weakness and with virtually no room to maneuver.
Trump promised in June to address Cuba after resolving the crisis with Iran, describing the regime as a "failed nation."
"We are talking about a moment when the situation in Cuba is significantly worse than in 2016," Zúñiga warned, criticizing the Cuban leadership for squandering the opportunities of the thaw.
"They made the wrong decisions after the opening initiated by President Obama. Now they need to improve conditions for the population with measures they previously resisted and that today might not even be enough," he stated.
"It is very difficult for the United States to negotiate with a government that believes it has everything to lose but also lacks internal solutions to improve the country's situation," he concluded.
Meanwhile, in Havana, pessimism is also beginning to gain ground.
Although the regime acknowledges that low-profile technical contacts are ongoing, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Relations, Josefina Vidal, publicly admitted that "there has not been much progress in the dialogues."
This paralysis, combined with a recent analysis on the possibility of military action against Cuba, warns that the scenario involving weapons is something that can no longer be overlooked.
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