The Cuban-American analyst Néstor T. Carbonell warned in an interview with CiberCuba that, if the diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Havana do not result in a genuine opening, "the need for some form of military action as a complement to diplomatic efforts cannot be ruled out because the danger is real and cannot be postponed."
Carbonell, a lawyer, veteran of Brigade 2506, and author of "Why Does Cuba Import? New Threats in America's Backyard," made this statement when asked about what alternatives remain if the diplomatic route fails.
For the analyst, urgency does not allow for delays: "If we do not seize this opportunity now, not only is the present and future of Cuba at risk in a dire humanitarian situation, but the rest of the hemisphere is also in danger, as is the credibility of the United States in the face of foreign powers that are adversaries of this country."
The central argument is that the world is watching how Washington reacts to a threat situated 90 miles off its coast, and that response will have global consequences.
"They are observing a situation: how does the United States ultimately react to a threat 90 miles from its coast? And that could have an impact and effect in other regions of the world regarding those powers whose goal is to try to supplant the United States as the world leader at this moment," he detailed.
That danger has a name and precise coordinates. According to the intelligence dossier managed by Carbonell, in Cuba there are four electronic espionage bases controlled by China that target the southeast of the United States, where a significant number of military installations are concentrated.
Russia, for its part, maintains two GLONASS stations on the island—of "dual use," capable of interfering with and monitoring satellites—along with similar installations in Venezuela and Nicaragua, creating a strategic triangle in the hemisphere.
In May, officials familiar with classified U.S. intelligence assessments warned that Chinese and Russian espionage in Cuba has nearly tripled since 2023.
The interviewer Tania Costa then asked Carbonell if he would consider the option that Secretary of State Marco Rubio left open on June 4 before Congress: that technocrats within the regime itself begin the path toward democracy, similar to what happened in Venezuela.
Rubio then acknowledged to the legislators that “there are certain technocrats with whom it would be possible to work”, although he admitted that he did not have the name of a trusted person to lead that process.
Carbonell's skepticism regarding this approach is set against a backdrop of stalled negotiations: the regime has released just 51 prisoners compared to more than 1,200 recognized political prisoners, and experts indicate that Díaz-Canel is employing a delaying strategy to reach the midterm elections in November without giving up any real ground.
The Pentagon and Southern Command have initiated planning exercises for contingency scenarios related to Cuba, although no intervention decision has been made.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis on the island is worsening: 2 million people are affected, there are blackouts lasting more than 30 consecutive hours, and 96,000 surgeries have been postponed—a reality that Carbonell describes as a "terrifying humanitarian situation" and which, in his view, reinforces the need to act before the regime runs out of time.
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