The Cuban-American historian Germán Miret, 86 years old, dismisses the idea that the economic reforms announced by the Cuban regime can save the dictatorship and argues that the only real solution is a profound political change, not just economic.
Miret analyzed for CiberCuba the statements of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as “the Crab”, grandson of Raúl Castro and the main informal interlocutor of the regime with Washington, who on June 19 gave his first public interview defending a supposed “Cuban economic model” of openness without political transformation.
He did this after the presentation of 176 economic reform measures approved by the National Assembly on June 18, the largest package of changes since the Special Period, which includes private banking, the elimination of the universal subsidy for the basic basket—effective since 1962—and foreign direct investment.
For Miret, these measures do not represent anything new. "They are now selling capitalism to the people. Now I can invest in Cuba. I, Germán Miret, can go to Cuba and invest. Wow, I could have done that 67 years ago!"
In an interview with Tania Costa, the historian was emphatic when referring to the root of the problem. "The mistake made in the past was to establish a regime, a political economic system that has never worked anywhere, in any country. So that is the first mistake that needed to be corrected."
"And secondly, he encouraged skepticism towards the government’s promises. 'On top of that, I don't believe in their economic promises. Yes, they have always been rogues. So, how am I supposed to trust a rogue?'"
Regarding the possibility of a democracy without a regime change, Miret was equally direct. "They want to remain in power, and you cannot have a democracy when a government is installed there for life. The only solution is to change the political and economic regime."
This debate takes place while one in three Cuban families experienced hunger in 2025, an increase of 9.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, and 89% of the population lives in extreme poverty.
In this context, Miret also highlights pre-revolutionary Cuba as an economic benchmark. "Cuba was one of the countries with the highest percentage of middle class in America... It was growing in an incredible way, and it was precisely the character of Cubans wanting to work and wanting to progress."
Remember also that by 1958, most sugar mills had come under Cuban ownership. "The Cuban was reclaiming his own country," a process that the revolution abruptly interrupted.
Regarding the political future of the island, the historian advocates for pluralism and cites the 1940 Constitution as a model. "In Cuba, we had it: there were three or four communists working alongside other political parties. In other words, it was allowed." He warns that in the future Cuba, there must be a social democratic party to prevent the heirs of communism from monopolizing that electoral space.
Miret also calls for seeking social balance. "Justice is equal: justice for the rich, justice for the poor, and justice for the middle class," a formula that, in his view, the regime has destroyed over more than six decades of dictatorship.
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