The southern part of Florida is facing a day of intense rain, thunderstorms, and extreme heat this Monday, with Miami-Dade and Broward among the highest risk areas, according to the forecast from Telemundo 51 prepared by meteorologist Dainet Sierra.
The probability of rain for this Monday reaches 80%, with expected accumulations between 0.25 and 0.50 inches, although some areas could exceed those amounts.
The greatest activity will be concentrated in the afternoon and the early hours of the night, when the collision of sea breezes activates the storm cores.
“The combination of heat, tropical humidity, and light winds will again create the perfect scenario for another round of intense storms this Monday,” warned Sierra.
Due to the low wind flow, many of these storms will move slowly, increasing the risk of localized flooding, especially along the east coast.
Maximum temperatures will hover around 90 °F, but the heat index could climb to 103 °F with southerly winds of only three to seven mph.
The I-95 corridor is on alert for flash flooding
According to an analysis by the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, published by WMNF, the greatest threat of flash flooding is concentrated along the I-95 corridor, from Jacksonville to Miami.
Meteorologist Irene Sans from FPREN explained that the convergence of a surge of moisture from the south and an unusual weak front for late July is generating storm activity across the entire peninsula.
“Some storms could become severe, with the main danger being gusts of wind of at least 58 mph,” noted Sans; who also warned: “Avoid any flooded areas, especially those that tend to flood easily.”
Precipitation will move slowly from west to east, which means that large amounts of water could fall repeatedly on the same areas, increasing the risk of flash flooding.
Welcome rain amid a historic drought
This rainy pattern arrives at a critical moment for Florida, which has been experiencing severe drought for months.
By mid-July, nearly 99% of the state was experiencing some level of drought, with 85% in severe or worse condition, and the Everglades were facing one of their worst water situations in 25 years.
The Tampa Bay area, extending up to the north of Punta Gorda, is experiencing extreme drought, and the inland areas of Miami-Dade and Broward have also seen their conditions worsen in recent weeks.
The forecasts indicate that some areas of the Gulf coast could receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain from Sunday to Thursday, which Sans described as "highly welcome, especially since much of the rain is expected to fall in areas that need it the most."
The drought also fueled nearly 50 wildfires that devastated over 10,000 hectares in various parts of the state during the week of July 24.
Forecast for the rest of the week
On Tuesday, history repeats itself with a 50% chance of rain, maximum temperatures near 92 °F, and heat indices of up to 105 °F, with southwest winds of five to 11 mph and gusts up to 18 mph.
Starting Wednesday, the arrival of drier air and Sahara dust will lead to a decrease in rainfall coverage, with more hours of sunshine and maximum temperatures approaching 94 °F.
Towards the weekend, however, the humidity will rise again over the state, which could translate into a return of evening storms, especially around Lake Okeechobee.
The meteorologist Greg Dee, from Tampa Bay 28, summarized the weekly outlook: "With the arrival of an unusual front for late July, the chances of rain look quite good. Good rain coverage extends throughout the week, especially between Thursday and Saturday."
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