Hermenegildo Altozano, a partner at the international firm Pinsent Masons and a specialist in investment law in Cuba, predicts that the island has the potential to become the leading hotel market in the Caribbean if a political and economic change occurs.
His forecasts, presented in an interview for the "Hotel Investment" Podcast, hosted by consultant Ivar Yuste, gain particular significance following the simultaneous exit of Meliá, Iberostar, and Barceló on July 21st.
"What needs to be done is to take cover until the hurricane passes."
Altozano distinguishes the current situational crisis from the structural value that the island maintains: “Cuba has always been there. It has a fairly decent hotel infrastructure for what the Caribbean is, very recoverable at a certain moment.”
To describe the current moment, he uses a graphic image: “I like to use the image of a hurricane: what needs to be done is to take cover until the hurricane passes.”
The numbers support the seriousness of the situation.
Cuba went from 4.7 million visitors in 2018 to only 1.81 million in 2025, with a hotel occupancy rate that dropped to 18.9%.
So far in 2026, the collapse exceeds 58% compared to the already disappointing previous year.
The future belongs to the U.S. market
For Altozano, the real debate is not in the present but in what will happen afterwards.
His forecast is clear: “Cuba will be the main hotel market in the Caribbean; it is only natural that the U.S. would occupy that position.”
The expert explains that Spanish dominance until now -approximately 40% of the market, an exceptional concentration- has responded to a very specific political circumstance:
"In Cuba, Spanish hotel chains have developed due to one circumstance: for more than sixty years, Americans were not allowed to set foot there."
That logic, he argues, will be reversed when the conditions change.
The departure of the three major Spanish hotel chains -which controlled more than 30,000 of the 86,559 available rooms- opens the door to chains like Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, or Wyndham.
The Cuban diaspora, the primary natural investor
Another central focus of Altozano's analysis was to highlight the role of the Cuban community abroad, particularly the entrepreneurs based in Miami.
"Cubans living abroad think: this is ours. The Spaniards, the French, and the Canadians will be here, but the ones who need to be here are us," the lawyer explained.
This perception, combined with geographical proximity, leads the expert to consider an influx of investment from Florida almost inevitable.
“The entry of real estate development in Cuba by promoters from Miami seems quite evident. I believe it's the natural course of things,” he asserted.
The real estate sector, a driver of recovery
Beyond hospitality, Altozano identifies the real estate market as the main catalyst for a future recovery: "Cuba's solution will be the real estate sector. It is what can immediately attract a lot of investment."
About the 5,911 claims certified by the U.S. Foreign Claims Settlement Commission - valued at $1.851 billion in principal - the expert does not see them as an insurmountable obstacle.
He believes that "a comprehensive compensatory agreement will likely be reached," similar to those made with Spain, France, or the United Kingdom.
Defaults and European passivity
Altozano also highlights the financial situation that the chains were facing before leaving: “There are hotel chains that have not received payments that are rightfully theirs for a long time.”
And summarizes the paradox: "They have established financial corralitos, violating international agreements."
The lawyer also harshly criticized Brussels' inaction.
"The European Commission has done absolutely nothing," he lamented, recalling that Regulation 2271/1996 provided legal tools for reciprocity that were never activated.
Meanwhile, the tourist continues to choose other destinations for very practical reasons.
"Why would I go to Cuba when there are power outages and I can't find taxis to get around, when I could go to the Dominican Republic or Cancun?" Altozano asked rhetorically, capturing in one sentence the struggle of a sector that he still sees as having the potential to lead the Caribbean.
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