The Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera cautioned in a video published on his channel RubieraTiempo that the tropical Atlantic has become active and that the eastern Caribbean should remain under surveillance due to the potential formation of one or more tropical cyclones in the coming days.
The system of greatest concern is Invest 92L, located east of the Lesser Antilles, to which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a probability of 80% of becoming a tropical cyclone.
Its development probability escalated rapidly: it was 20% on August 8, rose to 40% the next day, reached 60% on Monday, and hit 80% this Wednesday.
"We have 92L, an investigation system with a high potential to become a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Behind it, we have another one, and just wait, this isn't over yet," warned Rubiera.
Forecast models predominantly indicate the Lesser Antilles—central and northern parts—as a possible impact area, although the meteorologist urged caution: “The trajectories are heading toward the Lesser Antilles. Of course, this should be taken with great care because these trajectories alone are not sufficient.”
Regarding intensity, the models only bring 92L up to tropical storm category and project that it would weaken upon entering the Caribbean. The reason is the strong vertical wind shear dominating that basin.
However, Rubiera emphasized that those conditions can change: "It may not form at all, or it can weaken quickly due to strong upper currents reaching the Caribbean area. But despite all that, those conditions can change; they can change."
Behind 92L, there is a second system —identified as 93L— with a 30% chance of development, and a third very active tropical wave that was still within Africa and would emerge into the Atlantic in about a day and a half.
«It is a parade of tropical waves that have the potential for development,» summarized the expert. If 92L reaches the category of tropical storm, it would be named Dolly, the fourth of the 2026 Atlantic season.
Meanwhile, the NHC named this Wednesday the Tropical Storm Cristóbal (AL032026), the third named system of the season.
However, Rubiera clarified that it is a system of no practical significance: it is moving over cold waters in the North Atlantic, far from the Caribbean, and is expected to dissipate in less than 48 hours.
"It is necessary to closely observe the future trajectory and evolution of the tropical cyclones that may arise from here," concluded Rubiera, who urged to maintain vigilance over 92L and the systems that follow in the coming days.
The NHC confirmed that at 03:00 UTC on Thursday, Cristóbal was located about 1,095 km east of the Azores, with winds of 65 km/h, and forecast its dissipation for that same night.
The INSMET issued Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 1 for Cristóbal and specified that "this system poses no danger to Cuba and is only of interest for navigation."
The temporal context makes vigilance more relevant: the period of highest historical hurricane activity in the Atlantic runs from mid-August to mid-October.
The 2026 season had been less active than usual until August, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, which generates strong wind shear and hinders the formation of cyclones.
INSMET had predicted in May the formation of 11 tropical cyclones in the basin, with a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm would affect Cuba and a 40% chance of a hurricane doing so.
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