The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) published a report this Wednesday recommending that the Trump administration establish a permanent U.S. military presence in the Caribbean as the first measure to confront the Cuban regime, which it describes as an active strategic threat to American national security.
The document, titled "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere", was prepared by Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of the Institute's Initiative for the Americas, and presents 12 specific policy recommendations.
The permanent military presence tops that list.
A dedicated presence, not a borrowed one
The proposal does not include the construction of large military bases in Cuba or in other Caribbean countries.
Proposes, instead, to expand access agreements, rights of overflight, and cooperation enclaves in security with allied governments in the region.
The model that inspires her is the old Caribbean Defense Command, established in the 1940s as a precursor to the current Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).
The AFPI infographic summarizes it accurately: “Dedicated forces assigned to SOUTHCOM, not provided from other commands.”
The recommendation aims to institutionalize what have thus far been rotating deployments.
In recent months, the U.S. deployed more than 1,300 marines in the Caribbean along with the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and advanced surveillance aircraft as part of Operation Southern Spear.
The report aims to turn that type of presence into something permanent and structural.
Cuba: "More fragile than at any time since the Soviet collapse"
The report ranks Cuba as the longest-standing dictatorship in the Western Hemisphere—over 67 years since the 1959 Revolution—and argues that the regime is experiencing its most vulnerable moment in decades.
“Cuba is more fragile today than at any time since the Soviet collapse. Its economy is failing, its population has decreased by nearly a quarter in just four years, and the loss of Venezuelan oil has removed one of the regime's last lifelines,” states the AFPI.
A turning point was the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026. This event cut off the supply of Venezuelan crude oil to the island.
Mexico, which had started to cover part of that deficit, reduced its shipments in the face of the tariff threat imposed by Trump on countries supplying oil to Cuba, exacerbating the blackouts that in some areas exceed 20 hours a day.
"An international project" against the U.S.
Ford Maldonado was emphatic in presenting the report: “Cuba is a massive threat to the national security of the United States. It is a hostile communist regime that is only 90 miles from Florida and has a 67-year history of actively working against American interests, supporting all our adversaries, and exporting the revolution worldwide.”
The analyst went further by characterizing the nature of the Castro project:
"The Cuban Revolution has never been confined to the island. It is rather an international project. Its goal has always been to weaken the United States, strengthen its adversaries, and export the revolution to the world."
The document also warns that the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel has responded to pressure not with political openness, but by clinging to the Communist Party, security services, and the Armed Forces.
Additionally, it notes that Havana has expanded its cooperation with Russia, China, and Iran, turning the island into a platform from which adversarial powers "project influence in the Western Hemisphere" just 90 miles from Florida.
The AFPI and its connection to the Trump administration
The institute is not a peripheral player in Washington. It was founded in 2021 by former officials of the first Trump administration, and several of its past leaders currently hold key positions: Brooke Rollins is the Secretary of Agriculture, Linda McMahon leads Education, John Ratcliffe heads the CIA, and Kash Patel directs the FBI.
The report falls within the policy known as the "Donroe Doctrine," under which Washington has declared that it will not tolerate hostile powers establishing military, intelligence, or economic bases in the Americas.
The document complements the July 2026 report from the Department of State titled "Cuba: the capital of 21st-century communism," presented by Marco Rubio, which documented six decades of Cuban espionage against the U.S. and concluded that the island remains a massive national security threat.
"Just 90 miles from Florida, the Cuban regime remains a strategic outpost for America's adversaries. Protecting the homeland requires an America First strategy of sustained maximum pressure," the report concludes.
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