The total public debt of the United States crossed the threshold of US$40 trillion for the first time in history this Tuesday, according to a statement released by the Department of the Treasury on Wednesday.
The official figure stood at US$40.05 trillion at the close of operations, a milestone that reflects decades of accumulated deficits and an unprecedented pace of borrowing in times of peace.
The most revealing fact is not the figure itself, but the speed at which it was reached: the debt took just four years to increase by a third, since it crossed US$30 trillion in January 2022.
The threshold of $39 trillion was surpassed in March of this year, months earlier than many analysts had projected.
The news arrived on the same day that the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, announced an expansion of the long-term bond repurchase program, doubling the size of some operations to at least US$4,000 million per transaction, effective from September 9 to November 4.
The announcement caused a decrease in yields — the 10-year bond fell by about six basis points and the 30-year bond by about nine — although analysts deemed it insufficient in relation to the total volume of debt.
The market context worsens the outlook. The 30-year bond auction held on August 13 settled at 5.216%, the highest level since 2001, while the previous day's 10-year bond auction recorded the highest financing cost since 2007.
As investors demand higher returns, the cost of servicing the debt rises, which in turn increases the Treasury's financing needs in a pattern that economists refer to as a "vicious circle."
Two months before the closing of the fiscal year 2026, accumulated interest payments amount to US$1.17 trillion, which is a 15% increase compared to the same period last year. Interest expenses have become the third largest budget item for the federal government, only behind healthcare and Social Security.
The margin before reaching the legal debt ceiling—set at US$41.1 trillion by the law enacted on July 4, 2025—is just US$1.05 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the debt held by the public will increase from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036.
The causes of growth are multiple and span different administrations. An analysis by Deutsche Bank estimates that the tax cuts under George W. Bush reduced revenues by $3.3 trillion by the mid-2010s, while those under Trump in 2017 cut at least an additional $1.5 trillion.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan amounted to over $1.6 trillion in spending. The financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated the debt by collapsing fiscal revenues and skyrocketing aid expenditures.
Neither Republicans nor Democrats have shown a willingness to tackle the most painful adjustments: the former reject tax increases, while the latter resist cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Analysts agree that Washington will only act if a serious disruption in the financial markets compels it to do so.
Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist for the U.S. at Deutsche Bank, acknowledged that surpassing this threshold "will draw attention to the issue in the short term," but warned that "it does not represent a magical threshold for the dynamics of debt."
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former president of the Congressional Budget Office, was more forceful: "The federal budget is the domestic enemy. It is the greatest threat to the foundations of economic progress, the international economic standing of the U.S., and national security. The only reason for optimism should be the concrete measures aimed at curbing the sea of red ink. Such concrete measures do not exist."
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